Raw ESP April-July Streamflow Volumes
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES / SACRAMENTO CA
824 AM PLT FRI JUL 17 2026
CHPS/ESP RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
See www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_resources_update.php for additional information
APRIL-JULY STREAMFLOW VOLUMES IN 1000AF (SRC=E)
07/17 07/16 07/14 07/10 07/03
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
WMSO3 10%: 143 143 142 140 136
WILLIAMSON RIVER 90%: 143 142 141 139 135
CHILOQUIN PROB: 143 142 141 139 135
OBS: 136 135 133 129 121
(AVG: 276) %AVG: 52% 52% 51% 51% 49%
DELTA: 0% 1% 1% 3%
FTJC1 10%: 48 48 47 47 47
SCOTT RIVER 90%: 48 48 47 47 47
FORT JONES PROB: 48 48 47 47 47
OBS: 48 48 47 47 47
(AVG: 164) %AVG: 29% 29% 29% 29% 28%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 1%
CEGC1 10%: 232 233 233 232 232
TRINITY 90%: 232 232 232 232 232
TRINITY LK PROB: 232 232 232 232 232
OBS: 226 226 225 222 218
(AVG: 578) %AVG: 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
DELTA: -0% -0% -0% 0%
SHDC1 10%: 1152 1152 1152 1148 1144
SACRAMENTO 90%: 1151 1151 1150 1146 1141
SHASTA PROB: 1151 1151 1150 1146 1142
OBS: 1063 1056 1043 1013 965
(AVG: 1698) %AVG: 68% 68% 68% 67% 67%
DELTA: -0% 0% 0% 1%
ORDC1 10%: 1061 1063 1062 1061 1060
FEATHER 90%: 1060 1063 1061 1058 1059
OROVILLE PROB: 1060 1063 1061 1059 1059
OBS: 1006 1004 995 976 948
(AVG: 1543) %AVG: 69% 69% 69% 69% 69%
DELTA: -0% -0% 0% 0%
07/17 07/16 07/14 07/10 07/03
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
HLEC1 10%: 522 522 519 518 518
YUBA 90%: 522 522 518 517 518
ENGLEBRIGHT PROB: 522 522 518 518 518
OBS: 513 512 507 503 497
(AVG: 942) %AVG: 55% 55% 55% 55% 55%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 0%
FOLC1 10%: 777 776 775 774 772
AMERICAN 90%: 776 775 774 772 771
FOLSOM PROB: 776 775 775 773 771
OBS: 774 773 771 768 762
(AVG: 1188) %AVG: 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 0%
CMPC1 10%: 223 224 225 223 223
MOKELUMNE 90%: 223 224 223 223 223
PARDEE PROB: 223 224 224 223 223
OBS: 221 222 221 220 219
(AVG: 443) %AVG: 50% 51% 50% 50% 50%
DELTA: -0% -0% -0% -0%
NMSC1 10%: 359 359 358 358 354
STANISLAUS 90%: 359 359 357 357 354
NEW MELONES PROB: 359 359 357 358 354
OBS: 354 353 351 350 345
(AVG: 674) %AVG: 53% 53% 53% 53% 53%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 1%
NDPC1 10%: 597 595 596 596 599
TUOLUMNE 90%: 595 595 594 594 599
NEW DON PEDRO PROB: 595 595 595 594 599
OBS: 587 586 585 582 577
(AVG: 1205) %AVG: 49% 49% 49% 49% 50%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -0%
07/17 07/16 07/14 07/10 07/03
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
POHC1 10%: 206 205 206 206 204
MERCED RIVER 90%: 205 205 205 205 203
POHONO BRIDGE PROB: 205 205 205 205 203
OBS: 202 202 201 200 197
(AVG: 384) %AVG: 53% 53% 53% 53% 53%
DELTA: 0% -0% 0% 0%
EXQC1 10%: 305 304 305 304 301
MERCED 90%: 305 304 305 303 301
EXCHEQUER PROB: 305 304 305 303 301
OBS: 301 300 299 296 292
(AVG: 613) %AVG: 50% 50% 50% 49% 49%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 1%
FRAC1 10%: 660 664 662 666 664
SAN JOAQUIN 90%: 659 664 660 661 663
MILLERTON PROB: 659 664 660 662 663
OBS: 639 642 635 630 617
(AVG: 1243) %AVG: 53% 53% 53% 53% 53%
DELTA: -0% -0% -0% -0%
PFTC1 10%: 643 641 642 645 642
KINGS 90%: 640 640 639 640 641
PINE FLAT PROB: 641 640 639 641 641
OBS: 623 621 617 611 598
(AVG: 1226) %AVG: 52% 52% 52% 52% 52%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -0%
TMDC1 10%: 118 118 118 117 117
KAWEAH 90%: 118 118 118 117 117
LK KAWEAH PROB: 118 118 118 117 117
OBS: 116 116 115 114 112
(AVG: 283) %AVG: 42% 42% 41% 41% 41%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 0%
07/17 07/16 07/14 07/10 07/03
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
SCSC1 10%: 25 25 24 24 23
TULE 90%: 25 24 24 24 23
LK SUCCESS PROB: 25 24 24 24 23
OBS: 24 24 24 23 23
(AVG: 62) %AVG: 40% 40% 39% 39% 38%
DELTA: 0% 1% 1% 2%
ISAC1 10%: 239 239 239 238 236
KERN 90%: 239 239 238 238 236
LK ISABELLA PROB: 239 239 238 238 236
OBS: 229 228 226 223 216
(AVG: 464) %AVG: 51% 51% 51% 51% 51%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 1%
BCAC1 10%: 39 39 39 38 38
LITTLE TRUCKEE 90%: 38 38 38 38 38
BOCA PROB: 38 38 38 38 38
OBS: 38 38 38 38 37
(AVG: 80) %AVG: 48% 48% 48% 47% 47%
DELTA: 0% 0% 1% 1%
FARC1 10%: 130 130 130 129 132
TRUCKEE RIVER 90%: 130 129 129 129 131
FARAD PROB: 130 130 129 129 131
OBS: 127 127 126 125 123
(AVG: 252) %AVG: 51% 51% 51% 51% 52%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
WOOC1 10%: 29 29 29 29 29
WF CARSON RIVER 90%: 29 29 29 28 29
WOODFORDS PROB: 29 29 29 29 29
OBS: 28 28 28 27 27
(AVG: 54) %AVG: 53% 53% 53% 52% 54%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
07/17 07/16 07/14 07/10 07/03
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
GRDN2 10%: 97 97 97 98 99
EF CARSON RIVER 90%: 97 97 97 98 99
GARDNERVILLE PROB: 97 97 97 98 99
OBS: 94 94 94 93 91
(AVG: 192) %AVG: 51% 51% 51% 51% 52%
DELTA: 0% 0% -1% -1%
STWN2 10%: 70 70 70 72 68
CARSON RIVER 90%: 70 70 70 71 68
CARSON CITY PROB: 70 70 70 71 68
OBS: 69 69 69 69 68
(AVG: 187) %AVG: 37% 37% 37% 38% 37%
DELTA: 0% -0% -1% 1%
FTCN2 10%: 62 62 62 63 61
CARSON RIVER 90%: 62 62 62 63 61
FORT CHURCHILL PROB: 62 62 62 63 61
OBS: 62 62 62 62 61
(AVG: 178) %AVG: 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
DELTA: -0% -0% -1% 0%
WWBC1 10%: 101 100 101 100 99
W WALKER RIVER 90%: 99 99 99 99 98
BLO LITTLE WALKER PROB: 99 99 99 99 98
OBS: 97 97 96 95 93
(AVG: 162) %AVG: 61% 61% 61% 61% 61%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 1%
BPRC1 10%: 29 28 29 29 29
EAST WALKER 90%: 28 28 27 27 28
BRIDGEPORT PROB: 28 28 28 27 28
OBS: 27 27 27 26 25
(AVG: 64) %AVG: 43% 43% 43% 42% 43%
DELTA: 0% 0% 1% -0%
07/17 07/16 07/14 07/10 07/03
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
PALN2 10%: 22 22 22 22 21
HUMBOLDT RIVER 90%: 22 22 22 22 21
PALISADE PROB: 22 22 22 22 21
OBS: 22 22 21 21 21
(AVG: 219) %AVG: 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 0%
MHSN2 10%: 5 5 5 5 5
MARYS RIVER 90%: 5 5 5 5 5
ABV HOT SPRGS CK PROB: 5 5 5 5 5
OBS: 5 5 5 5 5
(AVG: 35) %AVG: 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 0%
HREN2 10%: 8 8 8 8 8
HUMBOLDT RIVER 90%: 8 8 8 8 8
ELKO PROB: 8 8 8 8 8
OBS: 8 8 8 8 8
(AVG: 128) %AVG: 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 0%
10%: (10% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
90%: (90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
PROB: MOST PROBABLE (50% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
OBS: OBSERVED TO DATE (INCLUDED IN MAX/MIN/PROB)
%AVG: MOST PROBABLE (ESPRESSED AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
DELTA: CHANGE IN MOST PROBABLE (EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
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