National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service

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20-Day Snowmelt Guidance (Raw Model Output)

ZCZC RNOHFSESP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES / SACRAMENTO CA
1048 AM PLT TUE FEB 20 2018

CHPS/ESP MODEL GUIDANCE (SRC=D)
SEE WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_RESOURCES_UPDATE.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

5-DAY STREAMFLOW VOLUMES IN 1000AF

                        <------ 5 DAY PERIODS ENDING AT 12Z ON ------>   
                         02/25        03/02        03/07        03/12  
                         -----        -----        -----        -----   
WMSO3              MAX:    6.0          5.9          6.3         10.0
WILLIAMSON RIVER  PROB:    6.0          5.8          5.9          6.3
CHILOQUIN          MIN:    6.0          5.8          5.8          5.9

FTJC1              MAX:    2.5          2.3          3.8          9.2
SCOTT RIVER       PROB:    2.5          2.0          1.7          2.4
FORT JONES         MIN:    2.5          1.9          1.6          1.4

CEGC1              MAX:    6.2          9.1         19.0         42.6
TRINITY           PROB:    6.1          5.8          7.3         13.5
TRINITY LK         MIN:    5.9          5.1          4.8          6.1

SHDC1              MAX:   42.5         83.8        138.9        185.0
SACRAMENTO        PROB:   39.3         45.2         53.6         74.1
SHASTA             MIN:   38.4         38.7         39.3         42.8

ORDC1              MAX:   18.1         28.0         59.4        121.9
FEATHER           PROB:   17.9         16.9         20.8         33.1
OROVILLE           MIN:   17.6         15.8         15.0         17.1

HLEC1              MAX:    8.9         14.7         18.5         26.3
YUBA              PROB:    8.7          9.3         10.4         12.3
ENGLEBRIGHT FNF    MIN:    8.6          8.9          8.8          8.9

FOLC1              MAX:   14.9         39.4         50.1         74.8
AMERICAN          PROB:   14.6         14.8         17.8         24.6
FOLSOM             MIN:   14.4         12.9         12.2         13.1

CMPC1              MAX:    2.7          4.0          6.4         18.9
MOKELUMNE         PROB:    2.3          2.1          2.8          5.7
PARDEE             MIN:    2.3          1.8          1.6          2.2

NMSC1              MAX:    4.3          6.5         10.1         20.6
STANISLAUS        PROB:    4.1          3.8          4.8          7.7
NEW MELONES        MIN:    3.9          3.4          3.2          3.8

NDPC1              MAX:    5.7          7.2         15.0         25.2
TUOLUMNE          PROB:    5.5          5.6          6.6         11.8
NEW DON PEDRO      MIN:    5.4          5.1          4.9          6.2

POHC1              MAX:    0.9          1.0          1.6          4.3
MERCED RIVER      PROB:    0.9          0.9          1.0          1.7
POHONO BRIDGE      MIN:    0.9          0.9          0.9          1.0

EXQC1              MAX:    2.4          5.1         10.0          9.0
MERCED            PROB:    2.1          2.5          3.0          4.7
EXCHEQUER          MIN:    2.0          2.0          2.1          2.3

FRAC1              MAX:    4.2          7.5         11.8         14.8
SAN JOAQUIN       PROB:    4.0          4.1          4.8          6.9
MILLERTON          MIN:    3.9          3.5          3.5          3.6

PFTC1              MAX:    3.9          8.6         10.7         11.7
KINGS             PROB:    3.6          3.8          4.6          6.3
PINE FLAT          MIN:    3.5          3.1          3.1          3.2

TMDC1              MAX:    1.0          2.4          3.2          4.6
KAWEAH            PROB:    0.9          1.0          1.1          1.2
LK KAWEAH          MIN:    0.9          0.8          0.7          0.8

SCSC1              MAX:    0.5          1.0          1.6          2.1
TULE              PROB:    0.4          0.5          0.5          0.6
LK SUCCESS         MIN:    0.4          0.4          0.4          0.4

ISAC1              MAX:    3.4          3.8          3.7          4.0
KERN              PROB:    3.2          3.2          3.0          3.0
LK ISABELLA        MIN:    3.2          2.9          2.8          2.7

BCAC1              MAX:    0.7          0.8          0.8          1.2
LITTLE TRUCKEE    PROB:    0.7          0.7          0.8          0.8
BOCA               MIN:    0.7          0.7          0.7          0.7

FARC1              MAX:    3.7          3.7          4.2          5.6
TRUCKEE RIVER     PROB:    3.7          3.6          3.5          3.9
FARAD              MIN:    3.7          3.6          3.5          3.4

WOOC1              MAX:    0.3          0.3          0.4          1.1
WF CARSON RIVER   PROB:    0.3          0.3          0.3          0.5
WOODFORDS          MIN:    0.3          0.3          0.3          0.2

STWN2              MAX:    2.6          2.4          2.5          5.2
CARSON RIVER      PROB:    2.6          2.3          2.2          2.6
CARSON CITY        MIN:    2.5          2.2          2.1          2.1

WWBC1              MAX:    0.3          0.3          0.3          0.8
W WALKER RIVER    PROB:    0.3          0.3          0.3          0.3
BLO LITTLE WALKER  MIN:    0.3          0.3          0.3          0.2

BPRC1              MAX:    0.9          0.9          0.9          1.3
EAST WALKER       PROB:    0.9          0.8          0.8          0.8
BRIDGEPORT         MIN:    0.9          0.8          0.8          0.8

PALN2              MAX:    2.0          1.9          2.1          3.3
HUMBOLDT RIVER    PROB:    1.9          1.8          1.7          2.1
PALISADE           MIN:    1.9          1.8          1.7          1.7

MHSN2              MAX:    0.2          0.2          0.2          0.3
MARYS RIVER       PROB:    0.2          0.2          0.2          0.2
ABV HOT SPRGS CK   MIN:    0.2          0.2          0.2          0.2

HREN2              MAX:    1.3          1.2          1.6          2.5
HUMBOLDT RIVER    PROB:    1.3          1.2          1.2          1.7
ELKO               MIN:    1.3          1.2          1.2          1.2

MAX:  REASONABLE MAXIMUM (10% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
PROB: MOST PROBABLE      (50% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
MIN:  REASONABLE MINIMUM (90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)

FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN SHEF:
.ER WMSO3 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    6.0/   5.8/   5.8/   5.9
.ER WMSO3 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    6.0/   5.8/   5.9/   6.3
.ER WMSO3 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    6.0/   5.9/   6.3/  10.0
.ER FTJC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    2.5/   1.9/   1.6/   1.4
.ER FTJC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    2.5/   2.0/   1.7/   2.4
.ER FTJC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    2.5/   2.3/   3.8/   9.2
.ER CEGC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    5.9/   5.1/   4.8/   6.1
.ER CEGC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    6.1/   5.8/   7.3/  13.5
.ER CEGC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    6.2/   9.1/  19.0/  42.6
.ER SHDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1   38.4/  38.7/  39.3/  42.8
.ER SHDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1   39.3/  45.2/  53.6/  74.1
.ER SHDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1   42.5/  83.8/ 138.9/ 185.0
.ER ORDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1   17.6/  15.8/  15.0/  17.1
.ER ORDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1   17.9/  16.9/  20.8/  33.1
.ER ORDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1   18.1/  28.0/  59.4/ 121.9
.ER HLEC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    8.6/   8.9/   8.8/   8.9
.ER HLEC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    8.7/   9.3/  10.4/  12.3
.ER HLEC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    8.9/  14.7/  18.5/  26.3
.ER FOLC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1   14.4/  12.9/  12.2/  13.1
.ER FOLC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1   14.6/  14.8/  17.8/  24.6
.ER FOLC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1   14.9/  39.4/  50.1/  74.8
.ER CMPC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    2.3/   1.8/   1.6/   2.2
.ER CMPC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    2.3/   2.1/   2.8/   5.7
.ER CMPC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    2.7/   4.0/   6.4/  18.9
.ER NMSC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    3.9/   3.4/   3.2/   3.8
.ER NMSC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    4.1/   3.8/   4.8/   7.7
.ER NMSC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    4.3/   6.5/  10.1/  20.6
.ER NDPC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    5.4/   5.1/   4.9/   6.2
.ER NDPC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    5.5/   5.6/   6.6/  11.8
.ER NDPC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    5.7/   7.2/  15.0/  25.2
.ER POHC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   0.9/   0.9/   1.0
.ER POHC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   0.9/   1.0/   1.7
.ER POHC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   1.0/   1.6/   4.3
.ER EXQC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    2.0/   2.0/   2.1/   2.3
.ER EXQC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    2.1/   2.5/   3.0/   4.7
.ER EXQC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    2.4/   5.1/  10.0/   9.0
.ER FRAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    3.9/   3.5/   3.5/   3.6
.ER FRAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    4.0/   4.1/   4.8/   6.9
.ER FRAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    4.2/   7.5/  11.8/  14.8
.ER PFTC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    3.5/   3.1/   3.1/   3.2
.ER PFTC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    3.6/   3.8/   4.6/   6.3
.ER PFTC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    3.9/   8.6/  10.7/  11.7
.ER TMDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   0.8/   0.7/   0.8
.ER TMDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   1.0/   1.1/   1.2
.ER TMDC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    1.0/   2.4/   3.2/   4.6
.ER SCSC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.4/   0.4/   0.4/   0.4
.ER SCSC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.4/   0.5/   0.5/   0.6
.ER SCSC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    0.5/   1.0/   1.6/   2.1
.ER ISAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    3.2/   2.9/   2.8/   2.7
.ER ISAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    3.2/   3.2/   3.0/   3.0
.ER ISAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    3.4/   3.8/   3.7/   4.0
.ER BCAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.7/   0.7/   0.7/   0.7
.ER BCAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.7/   0.7/   0.8/   0.8
.ER BCAC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    0.7/   0.8/   0.8/   1.2
.ER FARC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    3.7/   3.6/   3.5/   3.4
.ER FARC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    3.7/   3.6/   3.5/   3.9
.ER FARC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    3.7/   3.7/   4.2/   5.6
.ER WOOC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.3/   0.3/   0.3/   0.2
.ER WOOC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.3/   0.3/   0.3/   0.5
.ER WOOC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    0.3/   0.3/   0.4/   1.1
.ER STWN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    2.5/   2.2/   2.1/   2.1
.ER STWN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    2.6/   2.3/   2.2/   2.6
.ER STWN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    2.6/   2.4/   2.5/   5.2
.ER WWBC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.3/   0.3/   0.3/   0.2
.ER WWBC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.3/   0.3/   0.3/   0.3
.ER WWBC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    0.3/   0.3/   0.3/   0.8
.ER BPRC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   0.8/   0.8/   0.8
.ER BPRC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   0.8/   0.8/   0.8
.ER BPRC1 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    0.9/   0.9/   0.9/   1.3
.ER PALN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    1.9/   1.8/   1.7/   1.7
.ER PALN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    1.9/   1.8/   1.7/   2.1
.ER PALN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    2.0/   1.9/   2.1/   3.3
.ER MHSN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    0.2/   0.2/   0.2/   0.2
.ER MHSN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    0.2/   0.2/   0.2/   0.2
.ER MHSN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    0.2/   0.2/   0.2/   0.3
.ER HREN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ9/DID05
.ER1    1.3/   1.2/   1.2/   1.2
.ER HREN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ5/DID05
.ER1    1.3/   1.2/   1.2/   1.7
.ER HREN2 20180225 Z DH12/DC201802201200/DUE/DVD05/QCVFEZ1/DID05
.ER1    1.3/   1.2/   1.6/   2.5

$$