Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 05/01/2026 1545Z
Data ending: 05/01/2026 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: CEGC1 (Trinity R - Trinity Lake)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:   18.1  Mean:   15.8  WY-to-date: Obs:   18.1 Mean:   15.8
2025       % of mean:    115% 

November   Obs:   91.4  Mean:   41.2  WY-to-date: Obs:  109.5 Mean:   57.0
2025       % of mean:    222% 

December   Obs:  208.4  Mean:   84.4  WY-to-date: Obs:  317.8 Mean:  141.3
2025       % of mean:    247% 

January    Obs:  223.2  Mean:  120.8  WY-to-date: Obs:  541.0 Mean:  262.2
2026       % of mean:    185% 

February   Obs:  156.5  Mean:  134.4  WY-to-date: Obs:  697.5 Mean:  394.9
2026       % of mean:    116% 

March      Obs:  149.5  Mean:  176.0  WY-to-date: Obs:  847.0 Mean:  570.9
2026       % of mean:    85% 

April      Obs:  110.0  Mean:  199.6  WY-to-date: Obs:  957.0 Mean:  770.5
2026       % of mean:    55% 

May        Obs (thru 01@12Z):    4.0    Mean:  215.7  WY-to-date: Obs:  961.0 Mean:  779.1
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:    71    78    85   113   160
           Obs + Fcst:       75    82    89   117   164
           % of mean:                    41% 

June       Mean:  120.9
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         22    23    25    37    76
           % of mean:                    20% 

July       Mean:   41.6
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         14    15    15    18    22
           % of mean:                    36% 

August     Mean:   12.7
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         10    10    10    12    14
           % of mean:                    79% 

September  Mean:    7.5
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:          7     7     8     9    11
           % of mean:                   105% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date:  961.0    Mean: 1170.5
WY2026     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   127   137   145   199   271
           Obs + Fcst:     1088  1098  1106  1160  1232
           % of mean:                    94%