Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 05/11/2026 1554Z
Data ending: 05/11/2026 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: FOLC1 (American - Folsom Reservoir)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:   26.3  Mean:   30.8  WY-to-date: Obs:   26.3 Mean:   30.8
2025       % of mean:    85% 

November   Obs:   77.6  Mean:   85.5  WY-to-date: Obs:  103.9 Mean:  116.3
2025       % of mean:    91% 

December   Obs:  354.2  Mean:  219.5  WY-to-date: Obs:  458.0 Mean:  335.8
2025       % of mean:    161% 

January    Obs:  396.1  Mean:  338.7  WY-to-date: Obs:  854.1 Mean:  674.4
2026       % of mean:    117% 

February   Obs:  304.5  Mean:  369.7  WY-to-date: Obs: 1158.6 Mean: 1041.2
2026       % of mean:    82% 

March      Obs:  404.3  Mean:  462.2  WY-to-date: Obs: 1562.9 Mean: 1503.4
2026       % of mean:    87% 

April      Obs:  465.0  Mean:  447.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 2028.0 Mean: 1951.0
2026       % of mean:    104% 

May        Obs (thru 11@12Z):  120.3    Mean:  444.3  WY-to-date: Obs: 2148.3 Mean: 2126.2
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   100   100   101   104   118
           Obs + Fcst:      220   220   221   225   238
           % of mean:                    50% 

June       Mean:  235.0
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         49    51    53    58    82
           % of mean:                    23% 

July       Mean:   60.8
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:          8     8     9    12    18
           % of mean:                    15% 

August     Mean:   11.9
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:          1     1     2     3     5
           % of mean:                    18% 

September  Mean:   13.3
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:          6     6     7    10    14
           % of mean:                    53% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 2148.3    Mean: 2719.2
WY2026     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   166   170   176   191   223
           Obs + Fcst:     2314  2319  2325  2339  2371
           % of mean:                    85%