Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 07/10/2025 1608Z
Data ending: 07/10/2025 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: FRAC1 (San Joaquin - Millerton Lk)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:    7.8  Mean:   25.1  WY-to-date: Obs:    7.8 Mean:   25.1
2024       % of mean:    31% 

November   Obs:   22.9  Mean:   34.1  WY-to-date: Obs:   30.7 Mean:   59.2
2024       % of mean:    67% 

December   Obs:   33.5  Mean:   58.2  WY-to-date: Obs:   64.1 Mean:  117.5
2024       % of mean:    57% 

January    Obs:   30.3  Mean:  109.8  WY-to-date: Obs:   94.4 Mean:  227.3
2025       % of mean:    28% 

February   Obs:  128.5  Mean:  114.3  WY-to-date: Obs:  223.0 Mean:  340.7
2025       % of mean:    112% 

March      Obs:  167.0  Mean:  174.1  WY-to-date: Obs:  389.9 Mean:  514.8
2025       % of mean:    96% 

April      Obs:  258.3  Mean:  259.0  WY-to-date: Obs:  648.2 Mean:  773.8
2025       % of mean:    100% 

May        Obs:  354.2  Mean:  425.0  WY-to-date: Obs: 1002.3 Mean: 1198.8
2025       % of mean:    83% 

June       Obs:  197.1  Mean:  374.0  WY-to-date: Obs: 1199.5 Mean: 1572.8
2025       % of mean:    53% 

July       Obs (thru 10@12Z):   19.3    Mean:  184.2  WY-to-date: Obs: 1218.8 Mean: 1656.3
2025       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:    41    41    42    42    42
           Obs + Fcst:       61    61    61    61    61
           % of mean:                    33% 

August     Mean:   56.3
2025       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         31    31    32    32    34
           % of mean:                    57% 

September  Mean:   24.7
2025       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         16    17    18    19    21
           % of mean:                    72% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 1218.8    Mean: 1839.0
WY2025     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:    89    89    91    92    96
           Obs + Fcst:     1308  1308  1309  1311  1315
           % of mean:                    71%