Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 05/21/2026 1940Z
Data ending: 05/21/2026 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: FRAC1 (San Joaquin - Millerton Lk)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:   31.4  Mean:   25.4  WY-to-date: Obs:   31.4 Mean:   25.4
2025       % of mean:    123% 

November   Obs:   59.0  Mean:   34.1  WY-to-date: Obs:   90.4 Mean:   59.5
2025       % of mean:    173% 

December   Obs:   75.0  Mean:   57.7  WY-to-date: Obs:  165.4 Mean:  117.3
2025       % of mean:    130% 

January    Obs:  169.8  Mean:  108.5  WY-to-date: Obs:  335.2 Mean:  225.8
2026       % of mean:    156% 

February   Obs:  114.9  Mean:  114.6  WY-to-date: Obs:  450.1 Mean:  339.5
2026       % of mean:    100% 

March      Obs:  308.2  Mean:  173.9  WY-to-date: Obs:  758.3 Mean:  513.4
2026       % of mean:    177% 

April      Obs:  219.2  Mean:  260.7  WY-to-date: Obs:  977.5 Mean:  774.0
2026       % of mean:    84% 

May        Obs (thru 21@12Z):  186.6    Mean:  427.2  WY-to-date: Obs: 1164.1 Mean: 1057.4
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:    77    81    83    85    87
           Obs + Fcst:      264   267   270   272   274
           % of mean:                    63% 

June       Mean:  372.9
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        139   151   159   175   194
           % of mean:                    43% 

July       Mean:  182.1
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         52    53    57    65    75
           % of mean:                    31% 

August     Mean:   55.7
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         24    25    26    29    31
           % of mean:                    48% 

September  Mean:   24.4
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:         12    13    14    16    18
           % of mean:                    58% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 1164.1    Mean: 1837.2
WY2026     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   316   327   337   366   389
           Obs + Fcst:     1481  1491  1501  1530  1553
           % of mean:                    82%