CNRFC - Hydrology - Water Supply - Raw ESP Forecast

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 06/16/2025 1408Z
Data ending: 06/16/2025 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: SHDC1 (Sacramento - Shasta Dam)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:  163.5  Mean:  226.3  WY-to-date: Obs:  163.5 Mean:  226.3
2024       % of mean:    72% 

November   Obs:  424.8  Mean:  301.3  WY-to-date: Obs:  588.4 Mean:  527.6
2024       % of mean:    141% 

December   Obs:  877.5  Mean:  534.3  WY-to-date: Obs: 1465.8 Mean: 1061.9
2024       % of mean:    164% 

January    Obs:  642.6  Mean:  706.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 2108.5 Mean: 1768.4
2025       % of mean:    91% 

February   Obs: 1543.9  Mean:  792.2  WY-to-date: Obs: 3652.4 Mean: 2553.1
2025       % of mean:    195% 

March      Obs:  991.0  Mean:  914.8  WY-to-date: Obs: 4643.4 Mean: 3467.9
2025       % of mean:    108% 

April      Obs:  744.2  Mean:  647.8  WY-to-date: Obs: 5387.6 Mean: 4115.7
2025       % of mean:    115% 

May        Obs:  422.0  Mean:  506.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 5809.6 Mean: 4622.2
2025       % of mean:    83% 

June       Obs (thru 16@12Z):  149.5    Mean:  317.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 5959.2 Mean: 4817.4
2025       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   125   125   125   125   126
           Obs + Fcst:      274   274   275   275   276
           % of mean:                    86% 

July       Mean:  229.9
2025       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        229   229   230   231   234
           % of mean:                   100% 

August     Mean:  202.2
2025       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        210   211   211   212   215
           % of mean:                   104% 

September  Mean:  195.0
2025       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        200   200   202   206   212
           % of mean:                   103% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 5959.2    Mean: 5574.4
WY2025     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   757   759   764   769   779
           Obs + Fcst:     6716  6718  6723  6728  6738
           % of mean:                   121%

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