Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 01/30/2026 1603Z
Data ending: 01/30/2026 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: SHDC1 (Sacramento - Shasta Dam)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:  219.6  Mean:  225.5  WY-to-date: Obs:  219.6 Mean:  225.5
2025       % of mean:    97% 

November   Obs:  389.5  Mean:  299.1  WY-to-date: Obs:  609.1 Mean:  524.5
2025       % of mean:    130% 

December   Obs:  818.2  Mean:  529.3  WY-to-date: Obs: 1427.3 Mean: 1053.8
2025       % of mean:    155% 

January    Obs (thru 30@12Z):  979.5    Mean:  707.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 2406.7 Mean: 1740.4
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:    25    25    26    26    26
           Obs + Fcst:     1005  1005  1005  1005  1005
           % of mean:                   142% 

February   Mean:  801.9
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        343   355   477   734   989
           % of mean:                    59% 

March      Mean:  917.6
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        340   561   862  1123  1409
           % of mean:                    94% 

April      Mean:  647.8
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        321   377   563   768  1083
           % of mean:                    87% 

May        Mean:  505.4
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        250   316   386   566   772
           % of mean:                    76% 

June       Mean:  316.1
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        201   219   253   334   401
           % of mean:                    80% 

July       Mean:  229.2
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        171   184   212   241   265
           % of mean:                    93% 

August     Mean:  201.8
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        161   171   193   214   232
           % of mean:                    95% 

September  Mean:  194.3
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        159   168   183   203   217
           % of mean:                    94% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 2406.7    Mean: 5575.4
WY2026     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:  1995  2538  3501  4209  5064
           Obs + Fcst:     4402  4945  5908  6616  7470
           % of mean:                   106%