Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 02/10/2026 1646Z
Data ending: 02/10/2026 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: SHDC1 (Sacramento - Shasta Dam)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:  219.6  Mean:  225.5  WY-to-date: Obs:  219.6 Mean:  225.5
2025       % of mean:    97% 

November   Obs:  389.5  Mean:  299.1  WY-to-date: Obs:  609.1 Mean:  524.5
2025       % of mean:    130% 

December   Obs:  818.2  Mean:  529.3  WY-to-date: Obs: 1427.3 Mean: 1053.8
2025       % of mean:    155% 

January    Obs:  991.2  Mean:  707.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 2418.5 Mean: 1761.3
2026       % of mean:    140% 

February   Obs (thru 10@12Z):  111.9    Mean:  801.9  WY-to-date: Obs: 2530.4 Mean: 2011.3
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   272   306   454   629   758
           Obs + Fcst:      384   418   565   741   870
           % of mean:                    71% 

March      Mean:  917.6
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        375   671   924  1244  1523
           % of mean:                   101% 

April      Mean:  647.8
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        350   420   562   826  1086
           % of mean:                    87% 

May        Mean:  505.4
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        259   327   409   599   793
           % of mean:                    81% 

June       Mean:  316.1
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        207   225   260   338   409
           % of mean:                    82% 

July       Mean:  229.2
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        177   190   217   236   270
           % of mean:                    95% 

August     Mean:  201.8
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        164   176   198   214   235
           % of mean:                    98% 

September  Mean:  194.3
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        161   172   188   205   220
           % of mean:                    97% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 2530.4    Mean: 5575.4
WY2026     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:  2061  2680  3469  4146  4993
           Obs + Fcst:     4591  5210  5999  6677  7523
           % of mean:                   108%