Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 05/11/2026 1554Z
Data ending: 05/11/2026 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: SHDC1 (Sacramento - Shasta Dam)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:  219.6  Mean:  225.5  WY-to-date: Obs:  219.6 Mean:  225.5
2025       % of mean:    97% 

November   Obs:  389.5  Mean:  299.1  WY-to-date: Obs:  609.1 Mean:  524.5
2025       % of mean:    130% 

December   Obs:  818.2  Mean:  529.3  WY-to-date: Obs: 1427.3 Mean: 1053.8
2025       % of mean:    155% 

January    Obs:  991.2  Mean:  707.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 2418.5 Mean: 1761.3
2026       % of mean:    140% 

February   Obs:  553.3  Mean:  801.9  WY-to-date: Obs: 2971.9 Mean: 2555.4
2026       % of mean:    69% 

March      Obs:  497.1  Mean:  917.6  WY-to-date: Obs: 3468.9 Mean: 3472.9
2026       % of mean:    54% 

April      Obs:  408.3  Mean:  647.8  WY-to-date: Obs: 3877.2 Mean: 4120.7
2026       % of mean:    63% 

May        Obs (thru 11@12Z):  127.0    Mean:  505.4  WY-to-date: Obs: 4004.2 Mean: 4325.1
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   169   170   171   175   183
           Obs + Fcst:      296   297   298   302   310
           % of mean:                    59% 

June       Mean:  316.1
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        198   202   206   215   243
           % of mean:                    65% 

July       Mean:  229.2
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        176   177   179   182   187
           % of mean:                    78% 

August     Mean:  201.8
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        164   165   167   169   174
           % of mean:                    83% 

September  Mean:  194.3
2026       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        158   159   163   168   174
           % of mean:                    84% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 4004.2    Mean: 5575.4
WY2026     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   867   874   885   902   937
           Obs + Fcst:     4871  4878  4889  4906  4941
           % of mean:                    88%