Raw ESP Water Supply Forecast

*CAUTION: Data below is raw model output and has not been reviewed
*         by a hydrologist.

Program run: 04/17/2024 1623Z
Data ending: 04/17/2024 12Z
* All units are in thousands of acre-feet.

Station: SHDC1 (Sacramento - Shasta Dam)

MONTHLY DATA

October    Obs:  186.7  Mean:  228.3  WY-to-date: Obs:  186.7 Mean:  228.3
2023       % of mean:    82% 

November   Obs:  203.4  Mean:  304.6  WY-to-date: Obs:  390.1 Mean:  532.9
2023       % of mean:    67% 

December   Obs:  310.2  Mean:  540.4  WY-to-date: Obs:  700.3 Mean: 1073.3
2023       % of mean:    57% 

January    Obs:  750.6  Mean:  696.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 1450.8 Mean: 1769.7
2024       % of mean:    108% 

February   Obs: 1230.9  Mean:  803.5  WY-to-date: Obs: 2681.7 Mean: 2594.7
2024       % of mean:    153% 

March      Obs: 1037.4  Mean:  909.7  WY-to-date: Obs: 3719.1 Mean: 3504.5
2024       % of mean:    114% 

April      Obs (thru 17@12Z):  388.0    Mean:  642.9  WY-to-date: Obs: 4107.2 Mean: 3880.6
2024       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:   277   284   295   303   365
           Obs + Fcst:      665   672   683   691   753
           % of mean:                   106% 

May        Mean:  502.8
2024       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        393   413   467   577   710
           % of mean:                    93% 

June       Mean:  317.4
2024       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        251   263   283   305   397
           % of mean:                    89% 

July       Mean:  229.9
2024       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        212   213   218   227   237
           % of mean:                    95% 

August     Mean:  202.1
2024       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        191   194   196   203   210
           % of mean:                    97% 

September  Mean:  195.3
2024       Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Forecast:        184   186   189   195   205
           % of mean:                    97% 

-------------------------------------------------------

Water Year Obs-To-Date: 4107.2    Mean: 5573.4
WY2024     Prob. level:      90    75    50    25    10
           Fcst Residual:  1531  1562  1650  1825  2023
           Obs + Fcst:     5638  5669  5757  5932  6130
           % of mean:                   103%