CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

Long-Range Products (daily timestep)

Back to Ensemble Products Map

Location:

<<< Previous Ensemble Location (ORIC1) | Next Ensemble Location (PLBC1) >>>

MAD RIVER - ARCATA (ARCC1)

Latitude: 40.91º N	Longitude: 124.06º W	Elevation: 13 Feet
Location: Humboldt County in California		Bulletin Group: North Coast		River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:34 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 15.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 22.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 24.0 Feet

Major Flood: 28.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | ARCC1

Select Threshold to Use: Threshold Value: Threshold Label:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to exceed record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be innundated and travel will be severly restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and Mckinleyville.
32.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to approach record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be innundated and travel will be severly restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and Mckinleyville.
30.0 Feet	Extensive, severe flooding of all low lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. Critical locations include residential areas of Blue Lake, Tyee City, and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 near Janes Road and areas near Giuntoli Lane.
28.0 Feet	Severe flooding of all low lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This includes residential areas of Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, US Highway 101 near Janes Road, areas near Giuntoli Lane, and Mad River Beach Road.
26.0 Feet	Severe flooding along Mad River Beach Road and extensive flooding of farmlands and other roads in the area. Flooding of residential areas around Tyee City is likely. Any low lying areas near the river could be flooded. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property.
24.0 Feet	Extensive flooding along Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farmlands. Some homes along the river could be threatened. Flooding of roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong onshore winds will enhance flood impacts.
23.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farmlands is likely. May cause water to flow across roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong, onshore winds will aggravate flood impacts.
22.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road. Water may flow across roads to Tyee City. Flood impacts will be aggravated by high tides and strong, onshore winds.
21.0 Feet	Flooding of Mad River Beach Road. Water may be flowing over roads to Tyee City. Flooding will be enhanced if the time of the crest is coincident with high tides and strong onshore winds.
18.0 Feet	Minor flooding of Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.
15.0 Feet	Minor flooding begins on the Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ103)

Today: Mostly cloudy until early afternoon then becoming mostly sunny. Slight chance of drizzle in the morning. Highs 56 to 66. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 41 to 51. North wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 60 to 70. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45 to 55. North wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58 to 68. North wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday Night through Friday: Mostly cloudy. Lows 43 to 53. Highs 56 to 68.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Lows 43 to 53.

Saturday through Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55 to 68. Lows 42 to 52.

NWS RSS Feed