CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

Long-Range Products (daily timestep)

Back to Ensemble Products Map

Location:

<<< Previous Ensemble Location (BCAC1) | Next Ensemble Location (TRRN2) >>>

TRUCKEE RIVER - FARAD (FARC1)

Latitude: 39.43º N	Longitude: 120.03º W	Elevation: 5153 Feet
Location: Nevada County in California		Bulletin Group: Eastern Sierra		River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:47 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 10.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 11.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 12.0 Feet

Major Flood: 13.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

5- and 10-day ensemble products for this location are regulated forecasts that include outflow from Lake Tahoe. Longer-range products are unregulated forecasts that do not include Lake Tahoe.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | FARC1

Select Threshold to Use: Threshold Value: Threshold Label:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
15.0 Feet	Record flooding at Farad and near record to record flooding on the entire mainstem Truckee River. Disastrous flooding of buildings,roads and bridges in the Verdi/Mogul area and downstream. Transportation is nearly cut off in all directions to and from Reno/Sparks.
14.5 Feet	Flood disaster from Boca downstream to Nixon. Near record flooding of buildings, roads and bridges in the Verdi/Mogul area. Transportation in and out of the region extremely difficult. Similar to record flood on November 21 1950. About a one in 100 chance of being exceeded during any given year per USGS estimates.
14.0 Feet	Severe near record flooding from Boca to Mogul with extensive damage to low lying structures along the river. Regional transportation severely affected with many major roads flooded or damaged. Not quite as severe as the record November 21 1950 flood.
13.5 Feet	Major flooding with extensive damage to roads, bridges and structures from Boca to Mogul, especially in the Verdi/Mogul area. Transportation becomes very difficult and most major roads and highways in the area are flooded, including Interstate 80. Exceeding the level and impacts from the January 1997 flood.
13.0 Feet	Major flooding from Boca to Mogul. At these flows significant damage should be expected to low lying roads,bridges and structures along the river ,especially in the Verdi/Mogul area. Transportation is significantly affected including flooding along portions of Interstate 80. Impacts roughly similar to the flood of January 1997.
12.5 Feet	Expanding moderate flooding from Boca to Mogul. Damage to roads, bridges and low lying buildings, especially in the Verdi/Mogul area. Transportation affected with many road closures. Impacts approaching, but not as severe as January 2 1997.
12.0 Feet	Moderate flooding from Boca to Mogul, especially to trailer and public parks in the Verdi/Mogul area along the river. Some damage to roads,bridges and low lying structures in the area.
11.5 Feet	Minor to moderate flooding from Boca to Mogul, especially to trailer and public parks in the Verdi/Mogul area along the river.
11.0 Feet	Flood stage. Minor lowland flooding in some locations from Boca to Mogul, especially parks and low lying terrain in the Verdi/Mogul area. Similar to the 12/31/2005 peak.
10.5 Feet	Minimal nuisance flooding of low lying areas from Boca to Mogul,but near bankfull in portions of the Verdi/Mogul area. Similar to the 1/8/2017 peak.
10.0 Feet	Monitor Stage, No flooding from Boca to Mogul, including the Floriston and Verdi areas. This level is near the histoic maxiumum observed spring snowmelt flows.
9.0 Feet	No flooding from Boca to Mogul, including the Floriston and Verdi areas. Similar to the 4/7/2018 peak.
8.5 Feet	No flooding from Boca to Mogul, including the Floriston and Verdi areas. Near this leve releases from Prosser, Boca, and Stampede Reservoirs are cut to reduce high flows at Reno. Near the highest snowmelt flows in May of 2023.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ072)

Today: Sunny. Highs 69 to 79. South winds around 10 mph increasing to southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 38 to 48. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 84. Light winds.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 44 to 54. West winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 88. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 46 to 56.

juneteenth and Thursday Night: Clear. Highs 75 to 85. Lows 43 to 53.

Friday and Friday Night: Breezy, clear. Highs 68 to 78. Lows 37 to 47.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Clear. Highs 58 to 68. Lows 31 to 41.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 64 to 74.

NWS RSS Feed