CNRFC - Ensemble Products

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

Long-Range Products (daily timestep)

Location:

GUADALUPE RIVER - SAN JOSE AT ALMADEN EXPRESSWAY (GUDC1)

Latitude: 37.28º N	Longitude: 121.88º W	Elevation: 150 Feet
Location: Santa Clara County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: South Bay

Issuance Time:

Mar 14, 2026 at 9:43 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 9.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 10.5 Feet

Moderate Flood: 11.5 Feet

Major Flood: 15.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | GUDC1

Select Threshold to Use: Threshold Value: Threshold Label:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
12.0 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Flooding continues to spill near Alam Avenue, flowing northward and crossing east under Willow Street and Alma Avenue viaducts, continuing to flow north. Overbanking occurs at Atlanta Avenue just upstream of CA87. The Willow Glen Neighborhood bounded by Willow Street and Minnesota Avenue see overland flooding. Overbanking occurs in various locations between Alma Avenue and Willow Glen Way. Potential flooding on Ross and Canoas Creeks due to high backwater caused by Guadalupe River.
11.73 Feet	Historical High Water - January 1995
11.0 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. River continues to overtop upstream of Alma Avenue Bridge into the Elks Lodge, spilling north along Lelong Street. Alma Avenue/CA87 viaduct is flooded. Creek overbanks west near Minnesota Avenue downstream of Alma Avenue. Properties south of the old UPRR alignment in the Northern Cross Neighborhood also at risk.
10.5 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. River begins to overtop upstream of Alma Avenue Bridge into the Elks Lodge, spilling north , as well as near the RxR on the east bank.
9.0 Feet	Action Stage: Additional flow from Canoas Creek watershed or increased reservoir spills may bring river to flood stage.