CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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GUADALUPE RIVER - SAN JOSE AT ALMADEN EXPRESSWAY (GUDC1)

Latitude: 37.28º N	Longitude: 121.88º W	Elevation: 150 Feet
Location: Santa Clara County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: South Bay

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:53 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 9.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 10.5 Feet

Moderate Flood: 11.5 Feet

Major Flood: 15.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | GUDC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

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Flood Impacts
17.01 Feet	Cont'...Possible overtopping of Guadalupe River near Capitol Expwy on the east side, flowing towards Pearl Ave. Additionally, possible overtopping near Thousand Oaks Park and upstream of Branham Lane flowing along streets flooding businesses and the Erickson Neighborhood. If flood is sustained or incresing, car dealerships along Capitol Expwy may be inundated as well. Potential flooding on Ross and Canoas Creeks due to high backwater caused by Guadalupe River.
17.0 Feet	Washington/Guadalupe, Tamien and Alma/Almaden Neighborhoods east of CA-87 inundated from floodwaters traveling under street viaducts from the west. Widespread flooding in the eastern Willow Glen Neighborhood, as well as the Gardner and Atlanta/Bird Neighborhoods. CA87/I-280 interchange at risk from overland flow spilling onto the roadway.
15.0 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Flooding continues to spill near Alam Avenue, flowing northward and crossing east under Willow Street and Alma Avenue viaducts, continuing to flow north. Overbanking occurs at Atlanta Avenue just upstream of CA87. The Willow Glen Neighborhood bounded by Willow Street and Minnesota Avenue see overland flooding. Overbanking occurs in various locations between Alma Avenue and Willow Glen Way. Potential flooding on Ross and Canoas Creeks due to high backwater caused by Guadalupe River.
11.73 Feet	Historical High Water - January 1995
11.5 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. River continues to overtop upstream of Alma Avenue Bridge into the Elks Lodge, spilling north along Lelong Street. Alma Avenue/CA87 viaduct is flooded. Creek overbanks west near Minnesota Avenue downstream of Alma Avenue. Properties south of the old UPRR alignment in the Northern Cross Neighborhood also at risk.
10.5 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. River begins to overtop upstream of Alma Avenue Bridge into the Elks Lodge, spilling north, as well as near the RxR on the east bank.
9.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Additional flow from Canoas Creek watershed or increased reservoir spills may bring river to flood stage.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ513)

Today: Sunny. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Northwest winds around 5 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 80s. Light winds and becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

juneteenth through Friday: Mostly clear. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the lower 50s.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the 70s.

Saturday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

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