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RUSSIAN RIVER - GUERNEVILLE (GUEC1)

Latitude: 38.50º N	Longitude: 123.00º W	Elevation: 65 Feet
Location: Sonoma County in California		Bulletin Group: Russian Napa		River Group: Russian Napa

Issuance Time:

Oct 11, 2024 at 7:45 AM PDT

Monitor Stage: 29.0 Feet

Flood Stage: 32.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in feet): GUEC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

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Impacts - E19 Information
49.5 Feet	Flood of record. 2/18/1986 (102,000cfs).
48.5 Feet	Near record flooding. In Guerneville the Veterans building and the Sheriffs substation begin to flood.
47.0 Feet	In Guerneville businesses on the north side of Main Street flood. Travel most areas impossible.
46.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding. In Guerneville much of downtown floods. The Guerneville post office begins to flood. In Rio Nido, River Road floods.
45.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding is forecast to occur along the lower Russian River. Much of downtown Guerneville will become inundated. Many roads will flood making travel nearly impossible throughout the reach.
44.0 Feet	In Guerneville HWY 116 west of town closed. Safeway floods. In Monte Rio and Guerneville Park the main business sections flood. Travel in most areas nearly impossible.
41.5 Feet	In Guerneville, River Road closed. In Monte Rio the main intersections flood. Monte Rio Elementary School begins to flood.
40.0 Feet	Major flooding is expected along the Russian River. In Guerneville travel on River Road becomes very difficult. In Northwood upper Redwood Drive floods. In Cazadero Austin Creek Road floods.
39.0 Feet	West of Duncan Mills HWY 116 is closed. In Hacienda River Road floods. In Rio Nido Canyon 7 Road at the miniture golf course floods. In Guerneville the Triple R Resort begins to flood.
38.0 Feet	In Duncan Mills Freezeout Road at Moscow Road floods. In Guerneville Park Cazadero Road at HWY 116 floods.
37.0 Feet	In Forestville Mirabel Road at River Road floods. In Guerneville River Road east of Guerneville floods. Mill Street and 5th Street flood. In Monte Rio River Blvd east of Monte Rio floods.
36.0 Feet	In Forestville Mirabel Park Resort and Mirabel trailer park flood. In Guerneville Fern Road at HWY 116 floods.
35.0 Feet	Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In Guerneville Brookside Resort begins to flood. More extensive flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive floods.
34.0 Feet	In Guerneville flooding begins at Johnsons Resort, Parkers Resort, Creekside Resort and Riverside Park. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive begins to flood.
33.0 Feet	In Guerneville the intersection of HWY 116 and Drake Rd is closed. In Monte Rio Willow and Alder Streets flood. In Forestville Mirabel trailer park begins to flood.
32.5 Feet	In Guerneville the intersecton of HWY 116 and Neeley Rd is closed. Mays Canyon Rd by the old rodeo grounds is closed.
32.0 Feet	Flood stage. Minor flooding. Lower Mill Street in Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio are expected to flood.
29.0 Feet	Monitor stage.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ506)

Rest of Today: Partly cloudy late in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the 40s to upper 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of rain. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. West winds up to 5 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 40s to upper 50s.

Columbus Day and Monday Night: Mostly clear except patchy fog. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Lows in the 40s to upper 50s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s.

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