National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service



TUOLUMNE RIVER - MODESTO (MDSC1)
Latitude: 37.63º NLongitude: 120.99º WElevation: 60 Feet
Location: Stanislaus County in CaliforniaBulletin Group: San JoaquinRiver Group: San Joaquin
Issuance Time: Jul 12, 2025 at 8:23 AM PDT
Action/Monitor: 50.5 FeetMinor Flood: 55.0 FeetModerate Flood: 66.0 FeetMajor Flood: 67.0 Feet
Please Note:Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.
Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot   Product Info.   CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MDSC1
Cursor readout:


Show:






What information is considered in this forecast?
Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast  Forecast Date:   Forecast Cycle:  
Select up to 2 thresholds to use to calculate exceedance probabilities.

Threshold 1:


Threshold 2:



Location Photographs

ESRI™ Locator Map
Flood Impacts
67.0 FeetExtensive flooding occurs. Flows in excess of 40,000 cfs could cause extensive damage to residential, industrial and commercial development in Modesto downstream of gage.
55.0 FeetThis is channel capacity through downtown Modesto.
Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast   (CAZ019)
Today: Sunny. Areas of smoke through the day. Highs 94 to 102. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 58 to 68. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 94 to 100. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear. Lows 60 to 70. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 95 to 103. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows 59 to 69.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 90 to 98.

Tuesday Night through Friday: Clear. Lows 55 to 64. Highs 87 to 97.