CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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MIDDLE FORK FEATHER RIVER - PORTOLA (MFTC1)

Latitude: 39.82º N	Longitude: 120.44º W	Elevation: 4850 Feet
Location: Plumas County in California		Bulletin Group: Lower Sacramento		River Group: Feather Yuba

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:24 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 4851.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 4852.5 Feet

Moderate Flood: 4853.5 Feet

Major Flood: 4855.5 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MFTC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

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Flood Impacts
4,856.5 Feet	Major to near record flooding. Major damages to transportation, homes and businesses. Similar to January 1997, and in excess of February 9, 2017. Potential for rapid rises and major impacts from tributary streams. Tributary impacts may significantly proceed main-stem peak flows.
4,855.5 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Major disruptions to transportation with significant impacts to homes and businesses between Beckworth and Clio. Approaching levels of February 9, 2017. Potential for rapid rises and major impacts from tributary streams. Impacts below Portola influenced by magnitude of tributary flows, especially Sulphur Creek. Tributary impacts may significantly proceed main-stem peak flows.
4,854.5 Feet	Moderate flooding of businesses, homes, structures, and roads, including Highway 89 near Clio, portions of Highway 70, and low lying homes from Beckwourth to Clio. Impacts below Portola influenced by magnitude of tributary flows, especially Sulphur Creek.
4,854.0 Feet	Moderate flooding of lowlands, roads, homes, businesses and structures along river from Beckwourth to Clio. Lowest homes on West Street begin to flood. Impacts below Portola influenced by magnitude of tributary flows, especially Sulphur Creek. Similar level to February 22nd, 2017, and slightly exceeding flooding of January 9, 2017.
4,853.5 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. Flooding of lowlands, structures, and roads from Beckwourth to Clio. Several low lying structures along river in Portola flood. Evacuation of homes on south end of West Street may be necessary. Highway 89 near Clio likely flooded. Impacts below Portola influenced by magnitude of tributary flows, especially Sulphur Creek. Similar level to 1/9/2017.
4,853.0 Feet	Minor flooding of lowlands, roads, and low-lying structures between Beckwourth to Clio. In Portola the lowest lying buildings and businesses on highway 70 may begin to experience some minor flooding. Water along West Street nearing lowest homes along river. Highway 89 near Clio likely flooded. Potential for greater impacts in the lower portion of the reach with large contribution from tributary creeks. Similar level to 3/23/2018.
4,852.5 Feet	Flood stage. Minor flooding of lowlands, rural roads, agricultural areas, and some low structures between Beckwourth and Clio. In Portola, water nearing lowest lying businesses along Highway 70 on west edge of Portola. The south end of West Street in Portola floods. Portions of Highway 89 near Clio may begin to flood. Potential for greater impacts in the lower portion of the reach with large contribution from tributary creeks. Similar level to March 17, 2011.
4,852.0 Feet	Limited minor lowland flooding between Beckwourth and Clio. Potential for road impacts near Clio with large contribution from tributary creeks.
4,851.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Some areas of very minor out of bank flow between Beckwourth and Clio.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ071)

Today: Sunny. Highs 66 to 76. West winds around 10 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a slight chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows 28 to 38. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs 59 to 69. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 29 to 39. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 65 to 75. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 35 to 45.

Monday and Monday Night: Clear. Highs 73 to 83. Lows 41 to 51.

Tuesday through Thursday: Clear. Highs 85 to 95. Lows 44 to 54.

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