CNRFC - Ensemble Products

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

Long-Range Products (daily timestep)

Back to Ensemble Products Map

Location:

<<< Previous Ensemble Location (BSRC1) | Next Ensemble Location (PIIC1) >>>

CARMEL RIVER - ROBLES DEL RIO (RDRC1)

Latitude: 36.47º N	Longitude: 121.73º W	Elevation: 269 Feet
Location: Monterey County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

May 20, 2025 at 8:54 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 7.5 Feet

Minor Flood: 8.5 Feet

Moderate Flood: 11.0 Feet

Major Flood: 13.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | RDRC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
14.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding along the entire Carmel River. Approaches to all bridges along the entire Carmel River will be impassable. Many homes and businesses along the entire Carmel River experiencing severe flood damage with transportation difficult.
13.0 Feet	Major flooding can be expected along the entire Carmel River. Some levees along the lower Carmel River in danger of breaching. Many homes, businesses, and roads along the entire Carmel River will become inundated. Portions of Mission Fields and Rio Roads will be flooded.
12.9 Feet	Flood of Record: 03/10/1995
12.0 Feet	Widespread flood damage to low lying homes along the entire Carmel River. Levees protecting homes near Mission Fields are in danger of breaching. Homes near the Carmel Lagoon area begin to have substantial flooding.
11.0 Feet	Hacienda Carmel residential development levee is threatened. Moderate flooding of golf courses and low lying homes along the entire Carmel River. Homes in the Carmel Lagoon area begin to experience moderate flooding.
10.0 Feet	South side of Highway 1 bridge access becomes inundated and impassable. Many low lying homes threatened along the entire Carmel River. Low lying homes near Camp Steffani experience substantial flooding and homes near Schulte Road in danger of flooding. Homes surrounding the Carmel Lagoon area are in danger of flooding.
8.5 Feet	Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to flood. Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to flooding.
7.5 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water levels are roughly 1 foot below primary breakout locations near Camp Steffani, Paso Hondo, and Dampierre Park.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ528)

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph and becoming west 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 50. West winds 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph and becoming west 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds 10 to 20 mph and becoming 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Friday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 60s.

Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 60s to mid 70s.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

NWS RSS Feed