CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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SALINAS RIVER - SPRECKELS (SPRC1)

Latitude: 36.63º N	Longitude: 121.67º W	Elevation: 21 Feet
Location: Monterey County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:52 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 20.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 23.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 26.0 Feet

Major Flood: 28.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | SPRC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

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Flood Impacts
30.29 Feet	Flood of Record, March 12, 1995, 95,000 cfs. Disastrous flood damage to roads and agriculture land in the Salinas Valley. The city of Salinas in danger of being inundated, with the lowest portions of the city beginning to flood. Historical Note: at least 2,000 acres of agricultural land were permanently destroyed by erosion and soil deposition by this flood of record.
30.0 Feet	Disastrous floding within the reach of the gage. Major damage to Southern Pacific Railroad near Castroville and Spreckels. Castroville residences and businesses from Merritt Street toward the Salinas River inundated. Disastrous flooding to farm land in the Salinas Valley, including severe damage due to erosion and sediment deposition. At least 100,000 acres inundated. Travel in the Salinas Valley near impossible. Water/sewage treatment plants flooded.
29.0 Feet	Major flooding continues along the entire reach. Possible evacuations of Soledad, Gonzales, Chualar, Spreckels, and Castroville. All roads to Spreckels inundated, isolating the town. US 101 inundated just north of Soledad. Highway 1 south of Castroville near Nashua Road begins to flood.
28.0 Feet	Major flooding of agricultural land within the reach of the gages. Major flooding begins along lower portions of Soledad, Gonzales, Chualar, Spence, Spreckels and Castroville. Water/sewage treatment plants in danger of being flooded. Many secondary and some primary roads inundated making travel difficult in the Salinas Valley. Highway 156 and 68 inundated and closed. Major damage to wide expanses of agricultural land in the Salinas Valley with 40,000 acres inundated.
27.0 Feet	Moderate flooding continues along the reach. Approaches to river bridges within the reach begin to erode. Lower portions of Castroville begin to flood. Highway 156 near Castroville begins to flood. Flooding to Foster Road, 1 mile of Salinas.
26.0 Feet	Moderate flooding of agricultural land and lower portions of Soledad, Gonzales, Chualar, Spence and Spreckels. Primary and secondary roads begin to flood within the reach. Highway 68 begins to flood. Levees in danger of breaching along the reach. At least 20,000 acres of farm land inundated in the Salinas Valley.
24.0 Feet	Significant flooding of the lowest portions of agricultural land begins within the reach of the gage. River Road and Spreckels Boulevard begin to flood.
23.0 Feet	A few farm residences will begin to flood near the Salinas River along the reach of the gage. River Road will begin to flood near Spreckels.
19.0 Feet	Minor lowland flooding of agricultural land can be expected.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ528)

Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. West winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Northwest winds around 5 mph and becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.

juneteenth: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday Night: Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Friday Night through Sunday: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s.

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