*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.
Please Note: 1) Each individual timeseries plotted on the graphical river forecast can be toggled on and off by clicking the legend entry above. If the "Observed (Raw Data)" contains bad data and is toggled off, the plot will scale to the remaining timeseries.
2) At extremely low river flows, the "Observed (Raw Data)" may show readings below the lower end of the available rating table, while the "Observed (Simulated)" will only show values at the bottom of the rating table, creating a potential discrepancy between the two readings.
Historical High Stage/Flow Events (Period of Record - Oct 1936 to Present)* - Ranked by Flow
1956
30,400
22.55**
Dec 23, 1955
1982
29,700
28.85
Jan 5, 1982
1940
24,000
21.10**
Feb 27, 1940
2023
20,500
24.54
Jan 9, 2023
1986
19,800
21.22
Feb 17, 1986
* Low flow partially regulated by Loch Lomond Reservoir since 1961, and inflatable fiber dam located 500 ft upstream from gauge. Many small diversions upstream from station for domestic supply.
Major Flooding. At approximately 21.76 feet discharge in the San Lorenzo River is approximately 15,000 cfs. Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage, with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. At 15,000 cfs, the City of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz.
19.5 Feet
Moderate Flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood.
16.5 Feet
Minor Flooding. Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park, with initial flooding in the St. Bernard Street area.
14.0 Feet
Monitor Stage. Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove.
Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ512)
Today: Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
juneteenth through Friday Night: Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Saturday through Sunday: Clear. Highs in the 60s to 70s. Lows near 50.
Product Disclaimer
This river graphic is not intended to serve as a
substitute for official flood watches, warnings, advisories, or statements
issued by the NWS San Francisco Bay Area-Monterey Weather Forecast Office. Observations
are preliminary and subject to change. River levels identified as "forecast"
should be consistent with those contained in official NWS products.
River levels identified as "guidance" have significant uncertainty
due to future weather or reservoir regulation and are provided for planning
purposes only.
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