Please Note: 1) Each individual timeseries plotted on the graphical river forecast can be toggled on and off by clicking the legend entry above. If the "Observed (Raw Data)" contains bad data and is toggled off, the plot will scale to the remaining timeseries.
2) At extremely low river flows, the "Observed (Raw Data)" may show readings below the lower end of the available rating table, while the "Observed (Simulated)" will only show values at the bottom of the rating table, creating a potential discrepancy between the two readings.
Historical High Stage/Flow Events (Period of Record - Oct 1936 to Present)* - Ranked by Flow
1956
30,400
22.55**
Dec 23, 1955
1982
29,700
28.85
Jan 5, 1982
1940
24,000
21.10**
Feb 27, 1940
2023
20,500
24.54
Jan 9, 2023
1986
19,800
21.22
Feb 17, 1986
1998
19,400
24.04
Feb 03, 1998
* Low flow partially regulated by Loch Lomond Reservoir since 1961, and inflatable fiber dam located 500 ft upstream from gauge. Many small diversions upstream from station for domestic supply.
Major Flooding. At approximately 21.76 feet discharge in the San Lorenzo River is approximately 15,000 cfs. Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage, with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. At 15,000 cfs, the City of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz.
19.5 Feet
Moderate Flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood.
16.5 Feet
Minor Flooding. Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park, with initial flooding in the St. Bernard Street area.
14.0 Feet
Monitor Stage. Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove.
Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ512)
Tonight: Breezy. Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe with heavy rainfall. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.
Friday: Showers likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 50s. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
Friday Night: Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds 5 to 10 mph and becoming northwest after midnight.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 20 percent.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
New Years Day: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Product Disclaimer
This river graphic is not intended to serve as a
substitute for official flood watches, warnings, advisories, or statements
issued by the NWS San Francisco Bay Area-Monterey Weather Forecast Office. Observations
are preliminary and subject to change. River levels identified as "forecast"
should be consistent with those contained in official NWS products.
River levels identified as "guidance" have significant uncertainty
due to future weather or reservoir regulation and are provided for planning
purposes only.
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