Please Note: 1) Each individual timeseries plotted on the graphical river forecast can be toggled on and off by clicking the legend entry above. If the "Observed (Raw Data)" contains bad data and is toggled off, the plot will scale to the remaining timeseries.
2) At extremely low river flows, the "Observed (Raw Data)" may show readings below the lower end of the available rating table, while the "Observed (Simulated)" will only show values at the bottom of the rating table, creating a potential discrepancy between the two readings.
Historical High Stage/Flow Events (Period of Record - Oct 1936 to Present)* - Ranked by Flow
1956
30,400
22.55**
Dec 23, 1955
1982
29,700
28.85
Jan 5, 1982
1940
24,000
21.10**
Feb 27, 1940
2023
20,500
24.54
Jan 9, 2023
1986
19,800
21.22
Feb 17, 1986
1998
19,400
24.04
Feb 03, 1998
* Low flow partially regulated by Loch Lomond Reservoir since 1961, and inflatable fiber dam located 500 ft upstream from gauge. Many small diversions upstream from station for domestic supply.
Major Flooding. At approximately 21.76 feet discharge in the San Lorenzo River is approximately 15,000 cfs. Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage, with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. At 15,000 cfs, the City of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz.
19.5 Feet
Moderate Flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood.
16.5 Feet
Minor Flooding. Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park, with initial flooding in the St. Bernard Street area.
14.0 Feet
Monitor Stage. Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove.
Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ512)
Rest of Today: Showers likely late in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 50s. West winds 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 20 mph and becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Northwest winds around 5 mph and becoming southeast after midnight.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Southeast winds around 5 mph in the morning and becoming light.
Wednesday Night: Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s.
Thursday: Rain likely. Highs in the 50s.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Friday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Friday Night through Sunday: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s.
Product Disclaimer
This river graphic is not intended to serve as a
substitute for official flood watches, warnings, advisories, or statements
issued by the NWS San Francisco Bay Area-Monterey Weather Forecast Office. Observations
are preliminary and subject to change. River levels identified as "forecast"
should be consistent with those contained in official NWS products.
River levels identified as "guidance" have significant uncertainty
due to future weather or reservoir regulation and are provided for planning
purposes only.
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