CNRFC - Hydrology - River Guidance - Graphical RVF

Location:

UPPER PENITENCIA CREEK - PIEDMOND ROAD (UPCC1)

Latitude: 37.39º N	Longitude: 121.84º W	Elevation: 205 Feet
Location: Santa Clara County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: South Bay

Issuance Time:

Jan 06 2026 at 1:35 PM PST

Next Issuance:

Jan 07 2026 at 9:00 AM PST

Action/Monitor: 6.5 Feet

Minor Flood: 8.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 9.0 Feet

Major Flood: 10.5 Feet

Plot Type:

Please Note:
1) Each individual timeseries plotted on the graphical river forecast can be toggled on and off by clicking the legend entry above. If the "Observed (Raw Data)" contains bad data and is toggled off, the plot will scale to the remaining timeseries.

2) At extremely low river flows, the "Observed (Raw Data)" may show readings below the lower end of the available rating table, while the "Observed (Simulated)" will only show values at the bottom of the rating table, creating a potential discrepancy between the two readings.

Observed Data Credit
	Raw streamflow data is provided by the Santa Clara Valley Water District. View Santa Clara Valley Water District Data for this station location.

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
10.5 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Sustained flooding would cause floodwaters to move north westerly towards Capitol and I-680, as well as south westerly toward McKee Road. I-680 at risk of flooding under the McKee and Alum Rock interchanges. Downstream of I-680, floodwaters move southwards toward Lower Silver Creek, and northwards following parallel to Coyote Creek, south of Lundy Avenue. Water may move further north toward Milpitas, crossing Montague Expwy and following Capitol Avenue toward I-880.
9.0 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. Flooding may occur along Penitencia Creek Road with overbanking occurring at multiple locations, mostly spilling southward upstream of Capitol Avenue. The Commodore neighborhood may experience flooding. Neighborhood south of Educational Park Drive floods. Flea Market and surrounding area along Berryessa Creek at risk. Significant overbanking may occur on both sides of the Creek, sheet flowing and ponding against I-680 if flooding is sustained.
8.0 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Bridges and surrounding areas near Mabury Road, Educational Park Drive, and King Road at risk. Neighborhood streets around Commodore Drive and Cape Horn Court at risk, as well as flow onto Educational Park Drive. Overbanking may occur near Noble Ave along Penitencia Creek Road. Baseball field and parking lot near KIPP Collegiate / Independence High School may flood.
6.5 Feet	Monitor Stage. Culvert debris can adversely affect capacity at Mabury Road and Educational Park Drive.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ513)

Rest of Today: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the mid 40s. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds around 5 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Areas of frost. Lows in the mid 30s.

Friday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Widespread frost. Highs in the upper 50s.

Friday Night and Saturday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 60.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 60s.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 40.

Monday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.

Product Disclaimer

This river graphic is not intended to serve as a substitute for official flood watches, warnings, advisories, or statements issued by the NWS San Francisco Bay Area-Monterey Weather Forecast Office. Observations are preliminary and subject to change. River levels identified as "forecast" should be consistent with those contained in official NWS products. River levels identified as "guidance" have significant uncertainty due to future weather or reservoir regulation and are provided for planning purposes only.

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