*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.
Upper Penitencia Creek - Piedmont Road (UPCC1)River Forecast Plot
Combination chart with 4 data series.
Forecast Posted: 06/16/2025 at 6:25 AM PDT ● Graphic Created: 06/16/2025 at 6:36 AM PDT
The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Range: 2025-06-11 13:00:00 to 2025-06-21 13:00:00.
The chart has 2 Y axes displaying Precipitation (In.) and Precipitation (In.).
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End of interactive chart.
Chart
Combination chart with 7 data series.
The chart has 1 X axis displaying Observation / Forecast Time (Pacific Local Time). Range: 2025-06-11 06:00:00 to 2025-06-21 06:00:00.
The chart has 2 Y axes displaying Stage (Feet) and Flow (Cubic Feet per Second).
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End of interactive chart.
Please Note: 1) Each individual timeseries plotted on the graphical river forecast can be toggled on and off by clicking the legend entry above. If the "Observed (Raw Data)" contains bad data and is toggled off, the plot will scale to the remaining timeseries.
2) At extremely low river flows, the "Observed (Raw Data)" may show readings below the lower end of the available rating table, while the "Observed (Simulated)" will only show values at the bottom of the rating table, creating a potential discrepancy between the two readings.
Major Flood Stage. Sustained flooding would cause floodwaters to move north westerly towards Capitol and I-680, as well as south westerly toward McKee Road. I-680 at risk of flooding under the McKee and Alum Rock interchanges. Downstream of I-680, floodwaters move southwards toward Lower Silver Creek, and northwards following parallel to Coyote Creek, south of Lundy Avenue. Water may move further north toward Milpitas, crossing Montague Expwy and following Capitol Avenue toward I-880.
9.0 Feet
Moderate Flood Stage. Flooding may occur along Penitencia Creek Road with overbanking occurring at multiple locations, mostly spilling southward upstream of Capitol Avenue. The Commodore neighborhood may experience flooding. Neighborhood south of Educational Park Drive floods. Flea Market and surrounding area along Berryessa Creek at risk. Significant overbanking may occur on both sides of the Creek, sheet flowing and ponding against I-680 if flooding is sustained.
8.0 Feet
Minor Flood Stage. Bridges and surrounding areas near Mabury Road, Educational Park Drive, and King Road at risk. Neighborhood streets around Commodore Drive and Cape Horn Court at risk, as well as flow onto Educational Park Drive. Overbanking may occur near Noble Ave along Penitencia Creek Road. Baseball field and parking lot near KIPP Collegiate / Independence High School may flood.
6.5 Feet
Monitor Stage. Culvert debris can adversely affect capacity at Mabury Road and Educational Park Drive.
Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ513)
Today: Sunny. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Northwest winds around 5 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 80s. Light winds and becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
juneteenth through Friday: Mostly clear. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the lower 50s.
Friday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the 70s.
Saturday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Product Disclaimer
This river graphic is not intended to serve as a
substitute for official flood watches, warnings, advisories, or statements
issued by the NWS San Francisco Bay Area-Monterey Weather Forecast Office. Observations
are preliminary and subject to change. River levels identified as "forecast"
should be consistent with those contained in official NWS products.
River levels identified as "guidance" have significant uncertainty
due to future weather or reservoir regulation and are provided for planning
purposes only.
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