National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service

AHPS - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services is an initiative from the National Weather Service to provide longer term hydrologic outlooks to the various users of hydrologic information, such as local emergency management officials, reservoir operators, and other water resources managers. The format of the products tends to be graphical in nature, as opposed to the text-based products generally issued for current forecast products. The data in the products tend to be probabilistic in nature, based on analysis of historic precipitation, temperature and streamflow, current river and basin conditions, and short-term meteorologic outlook. The core of the AHPS system is the ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) program, which is part of NWSRFS (National Weather Service River Forecast System).

AHPS / ESP Trace Analysis - "Create Your Own Product"

The AHPS / ESP Trace Analysis interface provides great flexibility in deriving products and information from the available ensemble streamflow traces. Please select from the topics in the table below to learn more about AHPS/ESP Trace Analysis and how to use the "create your own product" interface.

Topic Description
General Ensemble Theory for Streamflow Forecasts A very general overview of ESP using the NWSRFS Ensemble System
ESP Trace Analysis - Making Selections and Interpreting Results Specific instructions on how to "create your own product" and intrepret the results
ESP - A Few Words of Caution A review of the current limitations of ESP as interpreted at the CNRFC

To create your own product go directly to the AHPS / ESP Trace Analysis Interface