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PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude: 36.90º N	Longitude: 121.60º W	Elevation: 82 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Jul 05, 2025 at 8:44 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 22.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 24.1 Feet

Moderate Flood: N/A

Major Flood: 27.1 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | AROC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

rest of Today: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows around 50. East winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the upper 60s. Light winds and Becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Monday: Cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the upper 60s. Light winds and becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower 50s.

Tuesday: Cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog. Highs in the upper 60s.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows in the lower 50s.

Wednesday through Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.

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