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PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude: 36.90º N	Longitude: 121.60º W	Elevation: 82 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

May 08, 2025 at 8:53 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 22.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 24.1 Feet

Moderate Flood: N/A

Major Flood: 27.1 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | AROC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

Today: Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds and becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds and becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 50. West winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light winds and becoming west 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain. Highs in the lower 60s.

Monday Night and Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the upper 40s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the upper 40s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

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