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SAN LORENZO RIVER - BIG TREES (BTEC1)

Latitude: 37.04º N	Longitude: 122.07º W	Elevation: 227 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Apr 28, 2024 at 7:53 AM PDT

Monitor Stage: 14.0 Feet

Flood Stage: 16.5 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble File Download (Data in kcfs): BTEC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

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Impacts - E19 Information
14.0 Feet	Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove.
16.5 Feet	Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park with initial flooding in the St Bernard Street area.
19.5 Feet	The St Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding is imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood.
21.76 Feet	Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. The city of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ512)

Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 40s.

Wednesday through Thursday: Clear. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. Lows in the upper 40s.

Thursday Night and Friday: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s.

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