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SAN LORENZO RIVER - BIG TREES (BTEC1)

Latitude: 37.04º N	Longitude: 122.07º W	Elevation: 227 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Jul 05, 2025 at 8:45 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 14.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 16.5 Feet

Moderate Flood: 19.5 Feet

Major Flood: 21.76 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | BTEC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
21.76 Feet	Major Flooding. At approximately 21.76 feet discharge in the San Lorenzo River is approximately 15,000 cfs. Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage, with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. At 15,000 cfs, the City of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz.
19.5 Feet	Moderate Flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood.
16.5 Feet	Minor Flooding. Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park, with initial flooding in the St. Bernard Street area.
14.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ512)

rest of Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s. West winds up to 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the 60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds around 5 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

Wednesday Night through Friday: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s.

Friday Night and Saturday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.

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