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PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude: 36.90º N	Longitude: 121.60º W	Elevation: 82 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Jun 30, 2025 at 9:52 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 22.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 24.1 Feet

Moderate Flood: N/A

Major Flood: 27.1 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | AROC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
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What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of drizzle in the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Areas of fog in the evening, then patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs around 70. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Light winds and becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.

Independence Day: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog. Highs in the lower 70s.

Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 50.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog. Highs in the lower 70s.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower 50s.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs around 70. Lows in the lower 50s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog. Highs in the upper 60s.

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