CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude: 36.90º N	Longitude: 121.60º W	Elevation: 82 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:52 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 22.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 24.1 Feet

Moderate Flood: N/A

Major Flood: 27.1 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | AROC1

Select Threshold to Use: Threshold Value: Threshold Label:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph and becoming west 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph and becoming east around 5 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds and becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs in the 70s. Light winds and Becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 50.

juneteenth: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Thursday Night: Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Friday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Friday Night through Sunday: Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s.

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