CNRFC - Ensemble Products

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

Long-Range Products (daily timestep)

Location:

PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude: 36.90º N	Longitude: 121.60º W	Elevation: 82 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Apr 20, 2026 at 7:48 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 22.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 24.1 Feet

Moderate Flood: N/A

Major Flood: 27.1 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | AROC1

Select Threshold to Use: Threshold Value: Threshold Label:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.