CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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SMITH RIVER - JEDEDIAH SMITH SP NEAR CRESCENT CITY (CREC1)

Latitude: 41.79º N	Longitude: 124.08º W	Elevation: 79 Feet
Location: Del Norte County in California		Bulletin Group: North Coast		River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:34 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 25.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 29.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 34.0 Feet

Major Flood: 37.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | CREC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

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Flood Impacts
39.0 Feet	Extensive and severe flooding of all areas near the river will occur. Significant damage to roads, bridges and other structures near the river is likely. All low lying areas in and around the river will be flooded. All persons in the area should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect life and property.
37.0 Feet	Severe damage could be inflicted upon roads, bridges and other structures. All low lying areas in and around the river are likely to be flooded. Persons in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate actions to protect life and property.
36.0 Feet	Extensive is flooding possible along Highway 197 and US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area. Homes and campgrounds in these areas could be threatened, including portions of Jedediah Smith State Park.
35.0 Feet	Considerable flooding along Highway 197 and US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area will occur. Low lying homes in these areas are likely to be threatened.
34.0 Feet	Significant flooding along Highway 197 and along US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area. Some low-lying homes in these areas may be threatened.
32.0 Feet	Significant flooding along Highway 197 in the Gasquet area, with possible flooding of US Highway 199 near Gasquet. Some low-lying homes in these areas may be threatened.
29.0 Feet	Flooding along Highway 197 and low-lying roads near Gasquet is likely.
28.0 Feet	Flooding along lower portions of Highway 197 with possible flooding of roads near Gasquet.
26.0 Feet	Expect minor flooding along Highway 197 and other low-lying areas near the river.
25.0 Feet	Minor flooding of the lowest lying areas near the river may occur.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ101)

Today: Cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 56 to 66. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 41 to 51. Northwest wind around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 59 to 69. Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 45 to 55. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 59 to 72. Northwest wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 42 to 52. Highs 59 to 72.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Highs 55 to 65.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Lows 42 to 52.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Highs 54 to 64.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 41 to 51.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 59 to 69.

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