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EAST FORK CARSON RIVER - GARDNERVILLE (GRDN2)

Latitude: 38.85º N	Longitude: 119.70º W	Elevation: 4988 Feet
Location: Douglas County in Nevada		Bulletin Group: Eastern Sierra		River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Jun 30, 2025 at 9:20 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 13.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 14.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 15.5 Feet

Major Flood: 16.5 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | GRDN2

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

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Flood Impacts
20.0 Feet	Record Flooding. All roads in and out of Carson Valley flooded. Large portion of Carson Valley under water. Extensive damage to homes businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles. Similar to the January 1997 event.
19.5 Feet	Near Record Flooding. All roads in and out of Carson Valley flooded. Extensive damage to homes businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles. Approaching the January 1997 event.
19.0 Feet	Widespread flood damage in Carson Valley. Extensive damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles.
18.5 Feet	Widespread flood damage in Carson Valley. Extensive damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Potential for major bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles.
18.0 Feet	Widespread flood damage in Carson Valley. Extensive damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, communications, water and power severely affected. Potential for massive bank and channel erosion capable of sweeping away buildings, roads, and vehicles.
17.5 Feet	Major flooding in Carson valley with significant damage. The East Fork of the Carson River feeds Rocky, Cottonwood, Martin, and Henningson Sloughs which flood portions of Minden/Gardnerville downtown areas, causing damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Major effects to transportation, communication, water and power systems.
17.0 Feet	Major flooding in Carson valley with significant damage. The East Fork of the Carson River feeds Rocky, Cottonwood, Martin, and Henningson Sloughs which flood portions of Minden/Gardnerville near downtown, causing damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Major effects to transportation, communication, and water and power systems.
16.5 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Major flooding in Carson Valley with significant damage. East Fork of Carson River feeds Rocky, Cottonwood, Martin, and Henninson Sloughs, which flood low portions of Minden/Gardnerville near downtown causing damage to homes, businesses, schools, roads, and bridges. Transportation, including prolonged impacts to Highway 395 north of Stephanie Way, communication, and water and power systems significantly affected.
16.0 Feet	Moderate flood damage in Carson Valley. Some homes, business, schools, roads, and bridges in lower portions of Minden, Gardnerville, Centerville, Genoa, and Washoe Tribe Reservation flood. Moderate flood impacts to transportation, communication, and water and power systems. Highway 395 closure north of Stephanie Way likely. Flood level similar to January 2017 event.
15.5 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. Moderate flood damage in Carson Valley area. Flooding starts to impact homes, businesses, schools, transportation, communication, and water and power systems. Closure of Highway 395 north of Stephanie Way likely.
15.0 Feet	Minor flooding in Carson Valley with some mobile home communities, outbuildings, many roads, and bridges in lower portions of Minden, Gardnerville, Centerville, Washoe Tribe Reservation and Genoa flooded. Lane closures on Highway 395 north of Stephanie Way likely. Similar level to February 2017 flood.
14.5 Feet	Minor flooding in Carson Valley with some outbuildings, roads, and bridges in lower portions of Minden, Gardnerville, Centerville, Washoe Tribe Reservation and Genoa flooded. Highway 395 lane closures north of Stephanie Way possible if combined with high flows from the west fork. Similar to 12/31/2022 peak.
14.0 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Minor lowland flooding in Carson Valley. Low-lying roads, bridges, and drainage structures begin to sustain minor damage. Cottonwood Slough begins to flood Lampe Park. Flood prone areas include Washoe Tribe Reservation, Carson Valley Country Club, Glenwood Dr, Riverview Dr., Centerville Ln., NV Highway 88, Westwood Village, Rocky Slough, Waterloo and Mottsville Lanes. Possible impacts to south bound Highway 395 lanes north of Stephanie Way if combined with high flows from the West Fork.
13.5 Feet	Lowest portions of Carson Valley begin to have flood threat. The most flood prone areas include the Washoe Tribe Reservation, Carson Valley Country Club, Glenwood Drive, Riverview Drive, Centerville Road, NV Hwy 88, Westwood Village, Rocky Slough, Dresslerville Road, Waterloo and Mottsville Lanes.
13.0 Feet	Monitor stage, near Bank full, no flooding occurring. Residents along the river should prepare for flooding if additional rises due to snowmelt and/or rainfall runoff occur. Flood prone areas include Washoe Tribe Reservation, Carson Valley Country Club, Glenwood Dr, Riverview Dr, Centerville Rd., NV Highway 88, Westwood Village, Rocky Slough, Dresslerville Rd, Waterloo and Mottsville Lanes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (NVZ003)

Today: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89 to 94. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows 55 to 65. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 88 to 93. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows 56 to 66. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 92. Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 52 to 62.

Independence Day through Saturday Night: Clear. Highs 86 to 91. Lows 52 to 62.

Sunday through Monday: Clear. Highs 90 to 95. Lows 54 to 64.

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