National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service



CARSON RIVER - CARSON CITY (STWN2)
Latitude: 39.11º NLongitude: 119.71º WElevation: 4620 Feet
Location: Carson City County in NevadaBulletin Group: Eastern SierraRiver Group: Eastern Sierra
Issuance Time: Jul 01, 2025 at 9:10 AM PDT
Action/Monitor: 8.0 FeetMinor Flood: 10.0 FeetModerate Flood: 10.5 FeetMajor Flood: 11.0 Feet
Please Note:Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.
Threshold Exceedance Plot                  Product Information        CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs):  Forecast Group  |  STWN2

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Verification / Historical Plots
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Flood Impacts
19.0 FeetRecord flooding with damage previously unknown from Carson Valley to Fort Churchill, including Carson City and Dayton areas. All towns along the Carson River above Lahontan Dam are likely cut off, with bridges and roads badly damaged or destroyed. Heavy damage to homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Exceeding the January 1997 peak level, and about 1 in 100 chance of occurring in any given year.
18.0 FeetNear Record Flooding, Massive Damage from Carson Valley to Fort Churchill, including the Carson City and Dayton areas. Towns along the Carson River above Lahontan Dam may be cut off. Bridges, roads, homes, and other infrastructure are badly damaged or destroyed. Just below the January 1997 peak level.
17.0 FeetApproaching record flooding. All towns along the Carson River above Lahontan Dam may be inaccessible, with bridges and roads destroyed or badly damaged, including heavy damage to homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Carson Valley becomes a lake 3 miles wide by 12 miles long, the river is over a half mile wide in places. Thousands of acres of farmland flooded. Peak flows near this level have only been exceeded twice in the 80+ year history of the gage (1997 and 1955),and about a 1 in 50 chance in any year.
16.0 FeetMajor flood disaster with massive destruction of homes and infrastructure from Genoa to Fort Churchill, including Carson City and Dayton. Many towns and developments are isolated, with transportation nearly impossible with severe damage to infrastructure and agricultural areas. This is roughly equivalent to the third largest flood in the gage history (Februrary 1963).
15.0 FeetFlood disaster from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. Transportation is extremely difficult, with road closures likely to be long duration. Very large number of structures affected with severe damage to infrastructure (roads, bridges, power, water, and communications). Most cultivated fields are underwater, with large livestock losses possible.
14.0 FeetMassive flooding from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. Transportation is extremely difficult. A large number of structures affected with severe damage to infrastructure (roads, bridges, power, water, and communications). Most cultivated fields are underwater, with large livestock losses possible. Roughly similar to the 4th largest flood in gage history.
13.0 FeetExtensive flooding with major damage to roads, bridges, and structures from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. Almost all roads in valley areas flooded, making transportation very difficult. Massive bank erosion is possible. Large agricultural losses are likely due to erosion and rapid flow, including potential livestock drownings if not moved to higher ground.
12.5 FeetExtensive flooding with major damage to roads, bridges, and structures from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. Move livestock and equipment to higher ground if possible. Roughly similar to December 31, 2005 peak level.
12.0 FeetMajor flooding with significant damage to roads, bridges, and structures from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. Many roads in valley areas flooded, making transportation very difficult. Major bank erosion is possible. Agricultural losses are likely due to erosion and rapid flow. Move livestock and machinery to higher ground if possible. US Hwy 395 near Cradlebaugh Bridge likely closed in advance of reaching this stage.
11.5 FeetMajor flooding with significant damage to roads, bridges, and structures from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. Many roads in valley areas flooded, making transportation very difficult. Significant bank erosion is possible. Agricultural losses are possible due to erosion and rapid flow. Move livestock and machinery to higher ground if possible. Hwy 395 near Cradlebaugh Bridge likely closed in advance of reaching this stage. Similar peak level to February 2017 event.
11.0 FeetMajor flooding with many roads, highways, homes, and structures flooded from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City, Stewart, Empire, and Dayton. Many transportation routes affected, including US Hwy 395 near Cradlebaugh Bridge, which is likely closed six to twelve hours before this stage is observed. Significant bank erosion is possible with the capability of causing major damage as the river channel begins to move around laterally.
10.5 FeetModerate flooding from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. Damage to roads, parks, bridges, crops, irrigation systems, and buildings in lower areas. Several homes and businesses could begin to flood in lower parts of Genoa, Carson Valley, Stewart, and Dayton. Transportation begins to be affected. Water likely impacts southbound Hwy 395 near Cradlebaugh Bridge 6 to 12 hours before this stage is observed. Similar to the January 2017 event.
10.0 FeetFlood stage. Minor flooding of lower portions of flood plain from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton. River begins to go out of banks at this stage. Several homes may begin to experience minor flooding in Genoa, Carson Valley, and Dayton. Minor to moderate damage to parks and agriculture.
9.5 FeetMinor lowland flooding in flood prone areas along river from Genoa to Fort Churchill, Nevada, including Carson City and Dayton.
9.0 FeetMinor lowland flooding in lower reaches from Genoa to Fort Churchill, including Carson City and Dayton, Nevada. Sandbagging maybe necessary in some of the lowest areas, though most flooding is limited to pasture areas along the river, and possible inundation of Morgan Mill road.
8.5 FeetVery minor lowland flooding from Genoa to Fort Churchill, including Carson City and Dayton, Nevada. Sandbagging may be necessary in the Willow Bend area near Genoa to avoid minor flooding of private property. Prolonged flows near and above this level may result in significant bank erosion.
8.0 FeetMonitoring stage. Flood threat and localized overbank flows begin in lowest areas from Genoa to Fort Churchill, including Carson City and Dayton along the Carson River. Especially flood prone areas include: lower Carson Valley, Willow Bend in Genoa; Empire Ranch Golf Course, Mexican Dam area, Pinion Hills, Snyder Lane, Morgan Mill Road, Brunswick Canyon, as well as parks and agricultural land in the floodplain. Preparations for flooding should begin in these areas if additional rises are forecast.
Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast   (NVZ003)
Today: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89 to 94. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows 55 to 65. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 88 to 93. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows 56 to 66. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 92. Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 52 to 62.

Independence Day through Saturday Night: Clear. Highs 86 to 91. Lows 52 to 62.

Sunday through Monday: Clear. Highs 90 to 95. Lows 54 to 64.