CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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MORMON SLOUGH - BELLOTA (MSGC1)

Latitude: 38.05º N	Longitude: 121.01º W	Elevation: 130 Feet
Location: San Joaquin County in California		Bulletin Group: San Joaquin		River Group: North San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 12, 2025 at 9:21 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 16.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 22.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 30.9 Feet

Major Flood: 31.9 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MSGC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
31.9 Feet	Top of Levee right bank levee. Water will overflow toward Bellota and Highway 26.
23.0 Feet	Danger Stage
22.0 Feet	Flood Stage
16.0 Feet	Monitor Stage - Bike trail within lower Calaveras River channel flooded.
14.2 Feet	UOP research within the Calaveras River channel is affected by water levels.
9.0 Feet	Water rises out of the pilot channel but not yet on the levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Sunny. Highs 86 to 92. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 52 to 60. Northwest winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 82 to 90. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 51 to 57. West winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 91. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 51 to 59.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 84 to 92.

Sunday Night and Monday: Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 58. Highs 82 to 92.

Monday Night and Tuesday: Clear. Lows 52 to 58. Highs 83 to 93.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Clear. Lows 58 to 64. Highs 88 to 98.

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