CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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MORMON SLOUGH - BELLOTA (MSGC1)

Latitude: 38.05º N	Longitude: 121.01º W	Elevation: 130 Feet
Location: San Joaquin County in California		Bulletin Group: San Joaquin		River Group: North San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 11, 2025 at 7:52 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 16.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 22.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 30.9 Feet

Major Flood: 31.9 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MSGC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
31.9 Feet	Top of Levee right bank levee. Water will overflow toward Bellota and Highway 26.
23.0 Feet	Danger Stage
22.0 Feet	Flood Stage
16.0 Feet	Monitor Stage - Bike trail within lower Calaveras River channel flooded.
14.2 Feet	UOP research within the Calaveras River channel is affected by water levels.
9.0 Feet	Water rises out of the pilot channel but not yet on the levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Tonight: Clear. Lows 49 to 57. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 85 to 93. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear. Lows 53 to 61. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 83 to 91. West winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows 51 to 57. West winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 91.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 60.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 94.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 53 to 59.

Monday through Tuesday: Clear. Highs 85 to 95. Lows 53 to 59.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Clear. Lows 58 to 64. Highs 90 to 100.

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