CNRFC - Hydrology - River Guidance - Graphical RVF

Location:

PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude: 36.90º N	Longitude: 121.60º W	Elevation: 82 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Dec 25 2025 at 2:02 PM PST

Next Issuance:

Dec 26 2025 at 9:00 AM PST

Action/Monitor: 22.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 24.1 Feet

Moderate Flood: N/A

Major Flood: 27.1 Feet

Please Note:

Provisional monitor and flood stages have been established along the Pajaro River due to observed impacts to the levee system from previous flood events.

Plot Type:

Please Note:
1) Each individual timeseries plotted on the graphical river forecast can be toggled on and off by clicking the legend entry above. If the "Observed (Raw Data)" contains bad data and is toggled off, the plot will scale to the remaining timeseries.

2) At extremely low river flows, the "Observed (Raw Data)" may show readings below the lower end of the available rating table, while the "Observed (Simulated)" will only show values at the bottom of the rating table, creating a potential discrepancy between the two readings.

Observed Data Credit
	Raw streamflow data is provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS). View US Geological Survey (USGS) Data for this station location.

Historical Stage/Flow Data
Note: Water Year 2025 is currently showing peak daily mean values. These will be updated to instantaneous peaks in the coming months.
Water Year	Peak Discharge (cfs)	Stage (feet)	Date
Most Recent 5 Years
2025	2,300	15.19	Feb 14, 2025
2024	2,340	15.48	Feb 8, 2024
2023	13,200	29.11	Mar 11, 2023
2022	1,150	11.57	Dec 28, 2021
2021	1,160	9.97	Jan 29, 2021
Historical High Stage/Flow Events (Period of Record - February 1938* to Present) - Ranked by Flow
1998	25,100	33.73	Feb 3, 1998
1956	24,000	32.46	Dec 24, 1955
1958	23,500	33.11	Apr 3, 1958
1995	21,500	32.20	Mar 11, 1995
1969	17,800	23.90	Feb 25, 1969
1997	15,800	29.53	Jan 03, 1997
1983	15,800	28.03	Mar 02, 1983
* Missing data during 1939, otherwise record complete

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

rest of Tonight: Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe with heavy rainfall. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of showers 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday Night and Monday: Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the mid 60s.

Wednesday: Sunny. A slight chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s.

New Years Day: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

Product Disclaimer

This river graphic is not intended to serve as a substitute for official flood watches, warnings, advisories, or statements issued by the NWS San Francisco Bay Area-Monterey Weather Forecast Office. Observations are preliminary and subject to change. River levels identified as "forecast" should be consistent with those contained in official NWS products. River levels identified as "guidance" have significant uncertainty due to future weather or reservoir regulation and are provided for planning purposes only.

NWS RSS Feed

Verification - Historical Graphical RVF
Month:	Day:	Year:	Cycle:
To view other verification locations, use our Historical Graphical River Forecast Interface.