CNRFC - Hydrology - River Guidance - Graphical RVF

Location:

BEAR CREEK - MCKEE ROAD (MEEC1)

Latitude: 37.31º N	Longitude: 120.44º W	Elevation: 187 Feet
Location: Merced County in California		Bulletin Group: San Joaquin		River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Dec 24 2025 at 2:33 PM PST

Next Issuance:

Dec 25 2025 at 9:00 AM PST

Action/Monitor: 17.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 23.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 24.6 Feet

Major Flood: 25.6 Feet

Plot Type:

Please Note:
1) Each individual timeseries plotted on the graphical river forecast can be toggled on and off by clicking the legend entry above. If the "Observed (Raw Data)" contains bad data and is toggled off, the plot will scale to the remaining timeseries.

2) At extremely low river flows, the "Observed (Raw Data)" may show readings below the lower end of the available rating table, while the "Observed (Simulated)" will only show values at the bottom of the rating table, creating a potential discrepancy between the two readings.

Observed Data Credit
	Raw streamflow data is provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers. View US Army Corps of Engineers Data for this station location.

Historical Stage/Flow Data
Note: Water Year 2025 is currently showing peak daily mean values. These will be updated to instantaneous peaks in the coming months.
Water Year	Peak Discharge (cfs)	Stage (feet)	Date
Most Recent 5 Years
2025	2,571	15.04	Feb 15, 2025
2024	2,390	14.80	Feb 8, 2024
2023	7,513	26.16	Jan 10, 2023
2022	580	8.01	Dec 28, 2021
2021	1,860	12.25	Jan 29, 2021
Historical High Stage/Flow Events (Period of Record - November 1956 to Present) - Ranked by Flow
1956*	9,500	22.90	Dec 25, 1955
2006	7,711	24.65	Apr 4, 2006
1958	7,400	16.90	Mar 16, 1958
2023	7,390	26.16	Jan 10, 2023
1965	5,640	--	Jan 7, 1965
1973	5,542	17.35	Feb 11, 1973
* Possible backwater effect

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
27.2 Feet	On 1/10/23, the 26.18 foot Flood of Record took water up to the top of the levee system at the north end of Morse Drive and Thurman Court. This levee system has since been raised to 27.2 feet.
26.18 Feet	Water impacts the bottom of the M Street and G Street Bridges. Water escapes its banks at E South Bear Creek Drive between Glen Avenue and Cameron Lane.Flood of Record - 1/10/2023
24.65 Feet	2nd highest crest from 4/4/2006.
24.0 Feet	At 24 feet, the water flows towards the low point of Cooper Drive, businesses begin to flood.
23.0 Feet	The beechwood subdivision and the trailer park along the southern end of Bear Creek Drive floods in addition to Applegate Park on the south side of Bear Creek Drive.
17.0 Feet	Storm drains begin to back up. Street flooding occurs primarily north of Bear Creek Drive and east of M Street.
16.0 Feet	South bike path along Bear Creek floods downstream of the G Street bridge.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ302)

Today: Breezy. Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Near steady temperature in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Tonight: Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows around 50. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Friday: Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening. Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast winds up to 5 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night through Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. Lows in the upper 30s.

Product Disclaimer

This river graphic is not intended to serve as a substitute for official flood watches, warnings, advisories, or statements issued by the NWS San Joaquin Valley-Hanford Weather Forecast Office. Observations are preliminary and subject to change. River levels identified as "forecast" should be consistent with those contained in official NWS products. River levels identified as "guidance" have significant uncertainty due to future weather or reservoir regulation and are provided for planning purposes only.

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Verification - Historical Graphical RVF
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