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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1245 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

...A LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO NW 
CA OVER THE WEEKEND...
...WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR NRN/CNTRL CA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A 
WARMER SYSTEM ARRIVES... 

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: FRI PM - MON AM)...

Dry conditions the rest of the afternoon as some brief ridging 
transitions through the region in between systems. A low rotating 
offshore of BC will send some light showers into the north coast 
this evening before a larger surface/upper low drops in from the 
northwest. Forecast remains on track for a larger surface/upper low 
to bring additional precip to nw CA over the weekend. Majority of 
the precip still looks to be west of I-5 not traveling much further 
eastward than Mt. Shasta. The ensembles are united on that point but 
differ again in the 12z runs on how heavy precip will be along the 
north coast, though amounts have gone down since this morning. 

Afternoon update used the latest NBM resulting in another decrease 
in QPF by 0.10-0.75". Totals through 12z Mon: 1-3" north coast (up 
to 4.50" King Range), 1-2.75" Shasta, 0.10-0.75" rest of nw CA west 
of I-5 north of Point Reyes, and up to 0.10" for the nw Sierra and 
nrn Sac Valley with little to no precip elsewhere.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

Guidance saw some convergence in the afternoon forecast as 3-day 
totals in the EC have increased slightly across northern California 
in association with a long duration atmospheric river event across 
much of the state. Given the dynamic complexities of this event, 
mentioned in the morning's discussion, fluctuations in accumulations 
are expected to continue until valid time. 

Decreases of 0.5 to 1.0 inches were mad across the locations 
expected to receive the heaviest accumulations with decreases of 
around a tenth elsewhere. 

A sharp rise in freezing level is expect with the tropical tap and 
WAA advection during this event. Levels will start the 3-day window 
~8k feet across the north and 13k feet across the south. Levels are 
currently forecast to peak ~9-10k feet across the north on Tuesday 
morning and 14k across the south.