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CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion

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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1025 AM PST Sat Jan 16 2021

...FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SIERRA AND ERN NV MON...
...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP SRN CA TUE THROUGH THU...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

Ridging and dry conditions are expected to continue through Sun. 
Expect a cold front and shortwave aloft to move south across the 
region Sun night into Mon with another wave aloft Mon into early 
Tue.  Due to a dry air mass in place, expect only a few showers over 
the Sierra higher terrain and eastern NV Mon.  Expect freezing 
levels 4000-6000 ft in eastern NV and 7000-9000 ft in the Sierra.

As the upper waves eventually form a closed low off the northern 
Mexico coast, expect increasing precip Mon night through Tue night 
over southern CA, with precip then tapering off through Thu as the 
low gradually moves to the east.  Confidence has increased in the 
coverage and amounts as model agreement improves and trends wetter. 
Totals of 0.5-1.5" are expected in SW CA higher terrain as well as 
desert areas of far SE CA.  Expect freezing levels around 5000-8000 
ft. Confidence lowers significantly for Thu as some guidance brings 
light precip into northern CA. CNRFC QPF was based on WPC.