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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
745 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS A LOW PASSES 
OFFSHORE...
...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NRN CA/NV TONIGHT THROUGH THURS AS A 
TROUGH DIGS IN BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE AM - MON AM)...

An upper low continues to travel south offshore of CA this morning 
now southwest of Point Conception. The system has retreated further 
away from the coast since yesterday allowing precip to diminish into 
more isolated showers. Precip came in overnight heavier than 
expected across some of the central coast mountains as models 
underestimated the intensity. Observations show 1-2.50" on the 
higher end over the Big Sur coast and just under an inch over the 
Santa Cruz mountains in the last 12 hours. Current radar shows 
additional showers rotating into the central coast but much lighter 
and more widely scattered than yesterday. The main event is now 
over, precip wise, with lingering showers along the coast the rest 
of today as the low continues to move to the south offshore. 
Tonight, the low will change trajectories and head eastward towards 
Baja passing through south of the CA border tomorrow morning. Some 
showers along far southern CA possible as the low moves through to 
the south. 

Meanwhile up north, a shortwave will approach the PacNW sending 
additional scattered showers into nrn CA/NV starting tonight. The 
trough will arrive tomorrow morning swinging through the PacNW while 
digging to the south into CA the rest of the day dropping showers. 
The trough will begin to move inland across CA and into NV late 
Wednesday into Thursday. The back edge of the system will exit CA 
about Thursday afternoon/evening allowing shower activity to 
diminish. Behind the trough, high pressure will build in returning 
dry conditions to the region through the period, aside from 
potential drizzle associated with any developing valley fog. The det 
GFS/ECMWF show a shortwave over the PacNW on Sunday which may bring 
some showers to the northern border, but for now most of the 
ensembles favor continued drying. 

The only QPF in the forecast is for the near term (through 12z 
Friday). The morning QPF was a blend of WPC guidance and the NBM 
generally. Increased the amounts over Big Sur a bit given recent 
observations. QPF through 12z Fri: 0.25-0.75" north coast (up to 1" 
Smith Basin), 1-2.25" srn OR Cascades, 0.10-0.50" most of the rest 
of nrn CA/Big Sur, 0.10-0.30" San Diego area, and generally 0.10" or 
less along the rest of the CA coast.

Freezing levels 6-8 kft across the Sierra through Weds morning 
lowering to 3.5-6.5 kft north of I-80 in the afternoon further 
dropping to 3-4.5 kft Thursday. Most of the state will be below 5.5 
kft at that point before levels rebound west to east into Friday as 
high pressure returns.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.