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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
130 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026

...SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT 
THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP, T-STORMS, AND 
MOUNTAIN SNOW...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED AM - SAT AM)...

No major changes to the afternoon forecast as another low and 
frontal system/moisture plume will track southward along the 
California coast. Largest increases were made over San Diego and 
Riverside Counties where the moisture plume in combination with 
banded and shallow convection is looking possible tomorrow evening. 
These increases brought the 3-day total over the area to >1 inches 
across much of the foothills and above 3+ over the highest 
elevations.

Afternoon forecasts generally followed the guidance from the NBM 
throughout much of the remainder of the period while working in some 
of the HRRR in the first 6-hour period to try and place the current 
shower activity correctly. 

Similar to the previous storms, freezing levels will be quite low 
during the storm tomorrow and into Friday. Levels across the north 
will generally sit below 3,000 feet across the north and central 
portions of the forecast area. 

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)...

Forecast overall remains on track for a large surface/upper low to 
impact nrn/cntrl CA over the weekend. Models continue to disagree on 
the arrival timing of the precip, but 12z runs have trended a bit 
slower amongst the ensembles. The 12z det GFS/ECMWF have also 
shifted the low a bit northward compared to earlier runs which 
further pulls back the southerly/inland extent of the precip on 
Sunday/Monday compared to earlier. Meaning there is still 
uncertainty not just on the timing but on the southerly extent of 
precip as the det models show less spread than the ensembles/NBM. 

There is still good agreement that the bulk of the impacts from this 
larger system will be across nrn coastal CA into Shasta, but the new 
northward shift of the positioning has generated additional 
uncertainty around the northern Sierra. There is a wider range of 
QPF for the extended than there was before over that area with 
differences in the clusters again regarding how far south precip 
will extend. This did bring down the QPF compared to this morning by 
0.50-1.50". The official forecast was a blend of the 50% NBM and the 
det NBM to slow down some of the precip. QPF 12z Sat-12z Tues: 3-
5.50" nrn CA coast north of Point Reyes (up to 8.50" King Range), 4-
7" Shasta, 2.50-6" northern Sierra, 1-2" central Sierra/central 
coast mountains, 0.10-1" southern Sierra, 0.30-1.50" rest of Bay 
Area/central coast, 0.75-2.50" Sac Valley, 0.10-0.75" SJ valley, and 
less than 0.10" around Point Conception.

This low will be drawing in a warmer moist airmass raising freezing 
levels this weekend from sw to ne. On Saturday, the Sierra will 
start at around 3-6 kft rising to 5-9 kft by the evening. This 
increase will continue Sunday reaching 7-11.5 kft in the evening. 
The northward shift of the low also keeps freezing levels higher 
through the rest of the extended and raises them some over the 
weekend.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.