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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1250 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER N CA TODAY BEFORE MORE 
WIDESPREAD MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP ARRIVES THIS EVENING...
...WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS 
MOVE IN FROM OFFSHORE...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (FRI PM - THU AM)...

A low continues to approach the coast with a cold front stretched 
offshore from west of the OR border to the southwest further out to 
sea west of Baja. Radar is picking up more returns offshore as the 
system draws nearer. Generally light scattered showers since this 
morning dropping a few hundredths to 0.25" across the state. Highest 
amounts so far over Shasta at 0.30-0.75+" benefiting from favorable 
flow and lingering moisture. Precip will become more moderate later 
today into this evening as the low gets closer. Heaviest time period 
for precip still looks like overnight into early tomorrow afternoon. 
Thunderstorms are still a possibility over the next few days as 
well. Overall, the forecast remains on track for a series of systems 
to bring more widespread moderate rainfall to CA through the rest of 
the period. The same sources of uncertainty remain, general model 
differences on precip amounts, and around the path of the offshore 
low early next week. 

The afternoon update blended in the latest NBM and WPC guidance 
along with the 18z HRRR in some locations within the next 24 hours. 
This brought down the forecast further by 0.25-1" for most areas 
over the next six days. QPF totals through 12z Thurs: 3-6" 
Russian/Eel/north coast (6-7.50" Smith Basin, up to 9" King Range), 
6-12" Shasta, 3-11.50" Sierra, 3-6.50" central coast 
mountains/Transverse (locally >7" Big Sur coast), 1-3" Bay 
Area/central coast, 0.75-4" coastal srn CA and down the valleys.