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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1255 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

...SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO FRIDAY...
...NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
...POSSIBLY REMAINING UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (THU PM - WED AM)...

Strong high pressure is slowly but surely getting nudged downstream 
a bit this afternoon...but one more day of unseasonably warm 
temperatures is underway across CA and NV. A weak area of low 
pressure west of northern Baja (30N/120W) and a stretching/splitting 
s/wv trof between 130W and 140W will phase to form a disturbance off 
the central CA coast before it drifts southeast toward central Baja 
over the next 48 hours or so. This feature along with enough 
moisture advecting northward ahead of the primary circulation is 
expected to generate scattered light precip over the southern Sierra 
along with portions of southern CA and southern NV. Best coverage 
will be over the southern Sierra with amounts generally from 0.10- 
to 0.25-inch. Elsewhere...totals will be below 0.10-inch. 

After this feature moves far enough away from the area...attention 
turns to a moisture plume expected to initially advect from near the 
Hawaiian Islands to the northeast and intersect the coast of 
southern BC before sliding southward along the Pacific Northwest 
coast and reaching far northern CA late Saturday or early Sunday. 
Along with a relatively weak s/wv trof moving through the onshore 
flow...the moisture converging just ahead of the frontal boundary 
will bring northern CA its first widespread precip for the month of 
February. Best totals still look to fall over coastal areas of the 
lower Klamath River basin and Smith River basin...between 0.50- and 
1.50-inches (best across Del Norte county). Amounts taper off inland 
with the southern extent of precip reaching down to the 
Yuba/American River basins in CA and around I-80 in NV. Freezing 
levels starting the event will be 9000- to 11000-feet north of I-80 
and end up down to 5000- to 8000-feet toward the tail end of the 
precip.

After this frontal boundary weakens along the I-80 corridor the 
middle portion of the week looks to be unsettled...but there are 
differences amongst the models. The 05/12Z QPF Clusters provided by 
WPC shows the wide spread of solutions for the 48-hour period ending 
Thursday February 12 at 12Z. The majority (59%) show a quieter 
regime with scattered light precip possible across northern and 
central areas. However...the next two clusters (20% and 20% 
respectively) show a scenario with moderate precip across either 
central/southern CA...or northern CA. The overall total leads to a 
light to locally moderate precip event across the coastal mountains 
of northern/central CA and inland over the length of the Sierra as 
well as northeast NV. This all encompassing multi-model blend is a 
good way to go...and the latest Day 6 forecast represents this 
thinking.