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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1250 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

...CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP OVER CA THROUGH TUES, 
PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL SRN CA AND THE SRN SIERRA...
...T-STORM CHANCES OVER MUCH OF CA TODAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG 
THE COAST SOUTH OF THE MONTEREY BAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON PM - SUN AM)...

The system continues to shift to the south generating widespread 
precip across the state, mainly south of I-80. Things have come in a 
little heavier around the LA area the past couple of hours and radar 
is showing a narrow convective band approaching San Diego. Increased 
the QPF for the current window over those areas accordingly, though 
with no observations under that band and none of the high res models 
having picked up its development, it is difficult to accurately 
predict how much will fall. The afternoon update was mainly focused 
on the next 48 hours, though freezing levels were updated for all 6 
days. Changes over that time period to the QPF were generally up or 
down 0.10-0.50". Blended in the latest NBM with the previous 
forecast and the latest West WRF over some of the mountains around 
soCal. Some uncertainty in the QPF given that convection is still in 
the forecast, already seen a few lightning flashes over the SJ 
valley early this afternoon and that band developing offshore of San 
Diego. Any developing NCFRs can produce significantly more precip 
than forecast. Exceedance probabilities for rain rates remain high 
(60-100%) for at least 0.50"/hr over srn CA this afternoon and 30-
50% or so over the srn Sierra. Chances of exceeding 1"/hr are 
roughly 10-30% for parts of coastal srn CA. The overall pattern for 
the period has not changed since this morning, for details please 
see the previous discussion.