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CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion

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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
750 AM PDT Sat May 14 2022

...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST...
...LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RETURN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN 
AREAS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND BEGINS TO COOL 
TEMPERATURES FROM NW TO SE...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

A system will move inland to our north over the PacNW the rest of 
today. Most of the precip activity will be north of the region, 
though some light lingering showers will be possible along the north 
coast and the CA/OR border into the early afternoon. Little 
additional accumulation is expected at generally less than a tenth 
of an inch. High pressure will also begin to build over CA/NV the 
rest of today allowing temperatures to rise to above normal by about 
5-15 degrees for most areas away from the coast. A surface low and 
upper trough with an embedded shortwave will then approach the 
PacNW/BC tonight and begin to displace the ridge eastward. Dry 
conditions will take over for the rest of the weekend as this 
approaching system takes an earlier northward turn than previous 
ones depriving norCal/soOR of any precip. Continued warming away 
from the coast and above normal temperatures will persist for Sunday 
as most of the region remains under the influence of high pressure. 

The aforementioned upper trough will further displace the ridge out 
of the area by Monday with the region now transitioning to a 
troughing pattern. This will begin to cool temperatures from west to 
east back to near/below normal on Monday/Tuesday. Most locations 
from the Central Valley eastward will remain above normal early next 
week. Furthermore, warming will return for Wednesday as surface high 
pressure strengthens west of CA and shifts closer to the west coast. 
Little to no precip is expected during this time as well. The next 
system will approach as a surface/upper low in the Gulf of Alaska on 
Wednesday. There are some timing/positioning differences between the 
GFS/ECMWF, but the surface front looks to make landfall sometime 
Wednesday evening/overnight into the PacNW and norCal closely 
followed by the upper low. Precip is possible along the north coast 
and the CA/OR border starting Wednesday and continuing throughout 
the day Thursday. The upper low will become a trough by early Friday 
and progress to the southeast into ne CA and NV. This will also 
begin to shift the focus of the precip to the east over northern NV 
while cooling temperatures from nw to se back to near/below normal.

Most of the precip over the next 6 days is expected in the extended 
on Wednesday and Thursday. Once again the main focus will be north of 
Cape Mendocino where the highest amounts are forecast over the Smith 
Basin and crest of the Cascades at 0.25-0.50". About a tenth of an 
inch or less is forecast over northern NV. Freezing levels forecast 
at 9-11 kft along the northern border today and will rise throughout 
the weekend. These levels will lower again Wednesday into Thursday 
from nw to se as the next system approaches down to 3.5-7 kft along 
the CA/OR border by early Thursday. Lower freezing levels will 
spread to the south and east down to 3-4 kft along the CA/OR border 
and 4.5-8 kft to the south through the I-80 corridor.