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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
130 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

...A SERIES OF LOWS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE 
WEEK BRINGING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND OCCASIONAL T-STORMS...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE PM - MON AM)...

Radar continues to show a band of precip around the SF Bay Area 
inland near Sacramento south of I-80 with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across much of the rest of the state. Observations 
over the past 6 hours report another 0.50-1.50" with the highest 
totals from the Bay Area through to the northern Sierra where the 
bulk of the precip is currently focused along a cold front. 
Lightning detection is also reporting several strikes and flashes 
across nrn/central CA as well as offshore. Forecast overall remains 
on track, changes to the QPF over the next 6 days on the order of 
0.10-0.75" up or down. Made some adjustments around the Bay Area/I-
80 corridor along the current band of precip to account for recent 
observations. Still expecting a series of lows moving in from the 
northwest to bring periods of widespread precipitation and 
occasional thunderstorms. The current system will weaken into an 
open trough later today swinging through the region through 
Wednesday afternoon before the next system drops in from the 
northwest into Thursday. That second system looks to exit by early 
Friday with a break between systems and brief drying before another 
larger low moves in from the Gulf of Alaska. Some uncertainty 
remains on amounts from the weekend system as det and ensembles 
disagree on the arrival time of that precip and the speed at which 
it will spread across the region.

QPF from the rest of the current system through Wednesday afternoon: 
1-4.50" Sierra/Transverse/San Diego mountains, 0.50-1.50" rest of 
nrn/central CA, 0.30-1" coastal srn CA. While precip is generally 
expected to be more widely scattered north of I-80, the QPF likely 
underestimating anywhere thunderstorms may develop as models do not 
accurately capture this. QPF the rest of the period: 3-5.50" nrn CA 
coast Mendocino county northward (up to 7" King Range)/Shasta, 2.50-
5.25" nrn Sierra, 1.50-3" central/srn Sierra, 1-3.50" central coast 
mountains, 1-2.50" most of the greater Bay Area and nrn Sac Valley, 
0.25-1.25" SJ valley into the foothills, and 0.50-1" coastal srn CA 
(1-2" San Gabriel/San Bernadino/San Jacinto/Laguna mountains). 

Lower freezing levels throughout most of the week at around 3-5 kft 
before rising into the weekend sw to ne. Levels up to 4.5-7.5 kft 
from I-80 to southern Sierra Saturday afternoon increasing to 7-9 
kft Sunday afternoon. By the evening, most of the Sierra will be 
back up to 7-9.5 kft.